The ES stayed in a 6 tick range for the first half hour until the 10am EST Philly Fed announcement. Then it made a move to test the high at 1207.50. Price movement stalled and I waited for sellers to overtake the buyers and entered a short at 7.25 with an initial target of 1206. The ES then spent a good 15 minutes in a 4 tick range before touching and bouncing off 1208. I knew that if price headed towards 08 again, that it would probably break to new highs. I tried to get out at 1207.25 but could not get filled and finally decided to take the hit and exit at 1208 for a 3 tick loss. About 2 minutes later, the ES broke 1208 and started moving higher which setup a long breakout trade. After the quick pullback, I entered at 1208.50 with an initial target of 2010.50. The ES tagged 1210.50, but I did not get filled. It tagged it again, but I ran out of patience after spending more time than usual on trading this morning. I exited at 1210 for 6 ticks.
The market continues to defy all logic as it grinds upward. All shorts near tops need to be done with caution. After 15 minutes in my short trade this morning, I knew this market just did not want to go down. However there was just enough downside and seller action to keep me in the trade. It’s a pretty good rule of thumb if you get two failures at a major price (e.g. a double top), there’s a high probability it will not hold the third time.
UPDATE: RG triumphantly returns to the ring today, although I had to leave in the middle for another medical thing. Other than NJs trades which I marked, I tick scalped 5.75 which you will note I had pre-market as a key little volatility play level. Then I tried to scalp 7.50 as I knew NJ was trading there for a “real” position, but I too got run over on the scalp and came out with a 1T loss. Then as you see we ripped right up to my 10.50 level which I shorted practically blind. If I were here I would have been able to manage the position and probably trade all the way back to 5.75 – the order flow was SUCH a no brainer there. But since I was goinf to be away, I “set it and forget it” with a stop outside the failure and an easy high probability target in the mid 8 handle. So the whole ball of wax for today for NJ and I is a heck of a lot more trades than usual:
5 Trades, 3 wins, net 9 ticks