Trade war concerns remain in the forefront of market focus. Japan’s exports to the US fell 0.9% in June, the first decline in 1 ½ years even though their trade surplus grew $5.24B because of slowing imports from the US. The Fed’s Beige Book showed that US companies are questioning Trump’s trade policies. US Manufacturers “expressed concern about tariffs and in many districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies.” In the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony yesterday, he said “we hear many many stories of companies that are concerned and are now beginning to make investment decisions, or not make them, because of [Trump’s trade policies].” The economic calendar focus is Philly Fed and Claims @ 8:30am EST. The Fed’s Quarles speaks @ 10:00am EST in a pre-recorded video. IBM is up nearly 3% pre-market on an earnings estimates beat. Corporate earnings on deck today include MSFT, BK, DHR, DPZ, NUE, TRV, UNP, and PM. Volatility continues to shrink with trade war concerns countering corporate earnings. Size bias is short into the US session open, but it’s summer and there was very little overnight Size interest.
