01/16/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jan 162020

The phase one US/China trade agreement was signed yesterday committing China to purchase $200B of US goods over 2 years including agriculture and energy in exchange for the US to rollback some tariffs on goods from China.  The trade agreement also stipulates that China “enhance” protections for US intellectual property.

As a point of reference, Apple’s (AAPL) annual sales was $265B in 2018 and $260B in 2019.  So, while the phase one trade agreement is a win for balancing trade between the US and China, it’s not an economic altering “huge” deal.

Apple purchased a Seattle startup Xnor.ai who develops artificial intelligence tools for image recognition.  Look for Apple to be increasing their functionality on their iPhones and Webcams using AI in the future.

A major supplier to Apple, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) beat expectations, a healthy sign for smartphone demand.

XPO Logistics (XPO) is up over 17% premarket after announcing they would spin off their North American less-than-truckload business unit.

Earnings include MS, SCHW, BK, CSX, PRGS, and PPG.

The economic calendar includes Retail Sales and Philly Fed, Import Prices and Claims @ 8:30am ET, Business Inventories and NAHB @ 10:00am ET.  Central Bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman @ 10:00am ET and the ECB’s new president Lagarde @ 1:00pm ET.

Volatility is slowing as the ES continues to grind higher.

Size bias is long into the 8:30am numbers on relatively light Globex volume.


 Posted by at 7:16 am

01/15/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jan 152020

The phase one US/China trade agreement is scheduled for a White House signature @ 11:30am ET.  Trump called it a “beautiful monster” of a deal.  In a joint statement yesterday, Mnuchin and Lightizer warned that many current tariffs on Chinese goods would not rollback.  Given China’s slowing economy, there is growing concern that China may not be able to uphold an anticipated $200B of US goods purchases the trade agreement is supposed to entail.

Apple’s (APPL) iPhone security is in the spotlight as Attorney General William Barr once again publicly is pressuring Apple to unlock cell phones for criminal investigations.  Trump chimed in with a tweet “We are helping Apple all of the time on TRADE and so many other issues, and yet they refuse to unlock phones used by killers, drug dealers and other violent criminal elements.  They will have to stop up to the plate and help our great Country, NOW!”.  Apple responded, not true, they have provided substantial assistance to investigating the Pensacola Naval Base shooting.

Earnings include GS, BAC, BLK, PNC, USB, BBT, and AA.

The economic calendar includes PPI and Empire State @ 8:30am ET, Oil @ 10:30am ET and Fed Beige Book @ 2:00pm ET.  Fed speakers include Harker @ 11:00am ET and Kaplan @ 12:00pm ET.

Volatility could pick up later today as analysts finally get to evaluate the phase one US/China trade deal to determine if it meets the expectations anticipated by the stock market bulls over the last 2 years.

No Size bias as they showed little interest during Globex.


 Posted by at 7:10 am