02/19/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Feb 192020

Covid-19 has now claimed more than 2000 lives with the number of cases beyond 74K.

Despite Apple (APPL) coronavirus related revenue warning, the NASDAQ closed at a record high on Tuesday.

Boeing (BA) found debris in undelivered 737 MAX fuel tanks, an obvious quality control issue.  Boeing has ordered inspections of all MAX planes in storage, around 400.  There are an additional 385 MAX planes that have been delivered and grounded that Boeing recommends be inspected but it’s not clear if Boeing personnel will be involved.

Groupon (GRPN) is down over 20% overnight after disappointing earnings.  They have decided to stop selling merchandise which CEO Rich Williams says has “become a significant drag on our business.”

Earnings include ZG, ADI, BHC, DISH, IMAX, CAR, SAM, and WING.

It’s a Fed day with minutes released @ 2:00pm ET.  Fed speakers include Mester @ 8:30am ET, Kashkari @ 11:45am ET, and Kaplan @ 1:30pm ET.

The economic calendar focus is PPI and Housing numbers @ 8:30am ET.

Volatility continues to contract as the ESH20 climbs higher; expect that trend to continue.

Size bias is a divergent short into the 8:30am ET numbers, but on significantly lighter GLOBEX volume than recent.


 Posted by at 6:41 am

02/18/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Feb 182020

How bad is Covid-19 (a.k.a the coronavirus)?  It’s becoming less clear.  Apparently, China’s President Xi Jinping knew and talked about the virus weeks before it was made public.  The fast response to contain the virus spread was not so fast after all.  Popular Chinese social media bloggers posting initial virus stories vanished back in January, silencing virus information from the communist country.  The death count is now approaching 1900 with over 72K known cases.  China is looking to postpone their largest auto show and possibly their annual congress.

Apple (AAPL) issued a warning they would not meet fourth quarter expectations due to the Chinese government shutting down their factories.

Amazon (AMZN) resellers are starting to feel the virus impact as many Chinese exports have stopped.

Pier 1 Imports (PIR) is the latest retailer to fall on hard times.  They filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Monday.

Earnings include WMT, MDT, GRPN, HLF, TIVO, LZB, and AAP.

The economic calendar includes Empire State @ 8:30am ET and NAHB @ 10:00am ET.  The Fed’s Kashkari speaks @ 2:00pm ET.

Expect volatility to contract as the market pushes higher.  Given the long 3-day weekend, light economic calendar, and fresh coronavirus concerns, there is potential for the ESH20 to move this morning.

Size bias is short into the US cash session open.


 Posted by at 6:38 am

02/17/2020 Presidents Day

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Feb 172020

US stock markets are closed in observance of Presidents Day.  DTG will resume posting tomorrow, Tuesday, Feb 18.  Enjoy the 3-day weekend!



 Posted by at 5:08 am