07/19/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 192018

Trade war concerns remain in the forefront of market focus.  Japan’s exports to the US fell 0.9% in June, the first decline in 1 ½ years even though their trade surplus grew $5.24B because of slowing imports from the US.  The Fed’s Beige Book showed that US companies are questioning Trump’s trade policies.  US Manufacturers “expressed concern about tariffs and in many districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies.”  In the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony yesterday, he said “we hear many many stories of companies that are concerned and are now beginning to make investment decisions, or not make them, because of [Trump’s trade policies].”  The economic calendar focus is Philly Fed and Claims @ 8:30am EST.  The Fed’s Quarles speaks @ 10:00am EST in a pre-recorded video.  IBM is up nearly 3% pre-market on an earnings estimates beat.  Corporate earnings on deck today include MSFT, BK, DHR, DPZ, NUE, TRV, UNP, and PM.  Volatility continues to shrink with trade war concerns countering corporate earnings.  Size bias is short into the US session open, but it’s summer and there was very little overnight Size interest.


 Posted by at 6:38 am

07/18/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 182018

Fed Chairman Powell’s upbeat assessment of the US economy and the lack of a new volley in the US vs the world trade war brought out the bulls yesterday.  Powell refrained for entering the politics surrounding the global trade war but did caution that trade wars would impact long-term growth.  No new expectations were set for rate hikes as the markets have accepted an expected hike in September and December.  Powell testifies again this morning, this time to the House Financial Services Committee staring @ 10:00am EST.  GOOGL is facing a $5B EU antitrust fine for contracts tying android smartphones to exclusive sales of Google apps.  The fine is a record, beating last year’s $2.4B EU fine against GOOGL for giving Google shopping preferences over other companies.  Another executive of a major corporation has stepped down for violating codes of conduct; this time it’s Texas Instruments CEO Brian Crutcher.  The economic calendar focus is housing data @ 8:30am EST and Oil @ 10:30am EST.   It’s a big day for earnings with MS, EBAY, AXP, IBM, ABT, TMUS, and USB reporting.  In the opening week of 2nd quarter earnings, 85% have beat earnings estimates.    After yesterday’s trend day, volatility is a tough call for today.  It’s doubtful Powell will add much new in today’s testimony and there is always the chance of Trump tweet or new trade war salvo.  Assume yesterday’s low volatility will continue unless the bulls break to new highs or some news brings out the bears.  No Size bias as overnight trading was mixed and light.


 Posted by at 7:04 am