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05/15/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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May 152025
 

US booking for ocean container transport from China soared 277% to 21,530 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) for the last 7 days in the wake of last weekend’s trade negotiations between the US and China that resulted in a temporary pause in Chinese specific tariffs.  US importers had slammed the brakes on shipments from China after April 2 when Trump announced tariffs on China that rose to 145%.  There will likely be more volume than usual as importers catch up and hedge against the end of the pause and potentially higher tariffs.

Separately, China accused the US of “abusing export control measures” and urged Washington to correct their practices after the US issued guidance waring companies not to use Huawai’s Ascend AI chips which compete with Nvidia’s (NVDA) AI chips.  The Ascend AI chips are Huawai’s most advanced AI chips.  China says the US guidance threatens the stability of semiconductor supply chains.

Speaking from Qatar, President Trump said he urged Apple CEO Time Cook not to expand production in India, but rather increase manufacturing in the US.  Then Trump said that India offered to drop all tariffs on US goods as part of a trade deal.

Boeing (BA) shares hit 52-week highs as the aerospace giant became the largest beneficiary of President Trump’s Middle East dealmaking.  Boeing scored their largest order ever from Qatar Airways.  The $96 billion agreement is for 210 Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777X aircraft powered by GE Aerospace (GE) engines.

Last week, Boeing received a $10 billion aircraft order from British Airways as part of the US/UK trade negotiations.  Boeing also announced an order of up to 30 planes from AviLease, a global aircraft lessor based in Saudi Arabia and China lifted their ban on Boeing deliveries after the US/China negotiations.

Corporate earnings premarket include Alibaba Group (BABA), Deere & Company (DE), BEKE (KE), NetEase (NTES), Walmart (WMT), BIRK, CPRT, NICE, and SHG.  Earnings after the bell include Applied Materials (AMAT), Credicorp (BAP), and Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO).

The economic calendar is packed: PPI, Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Empire State, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index @ 8:30am ET, Capacity Utilization Rate & Industrial Production @ 9:15am ET, and Business Inventories & NAHB Housing Market Index @ 10:00am ET.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks @ 8:40am ET and Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks (pre-recorded) @ 2:05pm ET.

Volatility contracted on Wednesday.  Today’s volatility will be dependent on reactions to this morning’s economic data.  The ES 5-day average daily range is still moderately high @ 96.25 points.

No whale bias as overnight large trader volume was too light to be significant.

 

 Posted by at 6:08 am

05/14/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 05/14/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
May 142025
 

The April CPI number failed to show increase inflation from the Trump administration tariffs.  This suggests US importers did a good job of building inventories before the tariffs went into effect.

However, price increases are coming according to analysts.  Moody’s Analytics expects year over year inflation to jump to 3.8% in June and Goldman Sachs is forecasting inflation to reach 3.6% by the end of 2025.  Yale Budget Lab estimates an inflation increase of 1.7% lowers the average US household purchasing power by $2,800.

The Lab forecasts a price hike of 15% for leather goods, 14% for clothing and electronics, 11% for textiles, and 9% for automobiles and pharmaceuticals.  These inflationary threats will keep interest rates high, despite President Trump’s continuing demand for the Fed to lower interest rates.

Nvidia (NVDA) stock surged on Tuesday after the company announced it will ship 18.000 chips to an AI startup owned by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund.  Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is in Saudi Arabia alongside dozens of other tech executives, on tour with President Trump for a blitz of deal making in the Middle East.

Nvidia’s AI server maker and Apple’s iPhone assembler Foxconn posted a profit that leapt 91% and their quarterly revenue jumped 24.2%, handily beating forecasts.  Foxconn reported strong demand for AI servers and plans to expand their footprint to electric vehicles, a market where Nvidia also supplies chips.

Small US businesses that rely on goods originating in China and coming through the US Postal Service are getting a break on tariffs.  President Trump signed an executive order on Monday to reduce the small parcel tariffs from 120% to 54%.  Still much higher than the exempted “free” status small packages got before May 5, much better than 120%.

Corporate earnings after the bell include Cisco (CSCO), EBR, STN, and STE.  The economic calendar is light with Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30am ET.  Fed speakers include Governors Chirstopher Waller @ 5:15am ET and Philip Jefferson @ 9:10am ET.

Volatility leveled out on Tuesday and remains high.  The ES 5-day average daily range is 108 points.  Expect volatility to contract if the bulls keep grinding the index higher.

Whale bias is bullish into the US session open on decent overnight large trader volume.

 

 Posted by at 3:53 am
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