07/19/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 192019

Microsoft (MSFT) crushed earnings after the bell yesterday and is poised for new all-time highs and a market cap north of $1T.  Their Azure product has increased MSFT’s cloud revenue 21% as the company becomes more partner friendly in delivering customer solutions.

Comments by the Fed’s Williams and Clarida yesterday have FedWatch pricing a rate reduction at a 50.4% chance at the Fed meeting this month.  Both commented that the Fed doesn’t have to wait for a “disaster to unfold” before changing rates.

Oil prices are up over $1 after the US Navy shot down an Iranian drone that was allegedly threatening a US vessel in the international waters near the Strait of Hormuz.  Trump tweeted “the United States reserves the right to defend our personnel, facilities, and interests.”

The economic calendar focus is UoM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00am ET.  The Fed’s Bullard speaks @ 11:05am ET.  Volatility has ticked up however expect it to consolidate once again if the ES pushes higher.  No Size bias as Globex Size volume is both relatively light and mixed.


 Posted by at 6:19 am

07/18/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 182019

Market focus remains on earnings.  Netflix reported their first reduction in subscribers in 8 years putting pressure on NFLX, the first FAANG stock to report 2nd quarter earnings.  DOW component CSX also reported weaker than expected earnings and cited the drawn-out US/China trade war as impacting their business.  Earnings on deck today include UNH, HON, UNP, MS, and MSFT.

Weak manufacturing and business sentiment data from Japan has the Nikkei 225 down 2%.    Oil prices fell more than 1% yesterday after the Crude Inventory Report should a larger than expected build.

The economic calendar focus is the 8:30am ET Philly Fed and Claims.  The Fed’s Williams speaks @ 2:15pm ET.  Volatility increased to the downside yesterday which should remain the easier direction for today if the ES can get into the 60s.  Size bias is bullish into the US session open on higher than recent Globex volume.


 Posted by at 6:02 am