09/20/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 202018

Oil prices are up for the 3rd session in a row after the Oil Inventories report yesterday revealed US levels had fallen to their lowest in 3.5 years.  WTI is over $71/barrel.  Amazon announced plans to open as many as 3,000 cashier-less AmazonGo brick and mortar stores by 2021.  Prototype stores in Seattle and Chicago are being tweaked, but Bezos sees enough success to move forward.  Meanwhile, to keep up with the Musks, Bezos said he would invest over $1B Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket program which will fly people into space this year.  On the trade war front, Alibaba CEO Jack Ma retracted his 2017 promise to create 1 million new jobs in the US;  “This promise was on the basis of friendly China-US cooperation and reasonable bilateral trade relations, but the current situation has already destroyed that basis”.  The economic calendar focus is Philly Fed and Claims @ 8:30am EST and Existing Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.  Earnings include MU and DRI.  Volatility continues to contract as the ES remains pinned under its back-adjusted 2922.50 all-time high.  Assume upward movement will be grinding.  No Size bias as Size has taken little interest in trading overnight.


 Posted by at 6:29 am

09/19/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 192018

China’s retaliation of 5% tariff on $60B of US goods after Trump’s 10% tariff on $200B of Chinese goods was less than expectations and thus became bullish for US stocks.   Is this a sign towards resolution?  Not sure, but the markets seem to be taking it as a sign.  Resolution in the short-term (i.e. before the November US mid-term elections) would most likely be very bullish for US stocks.  The economic calendar focus is Housing Starts @ 10:00am EST and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  ECB’s Draghi has a talk starting @ 9:00am EST although it’s been a long while since his comments have affected the US markets.  Only company of note with earnings is RHT.  Volatility increased yesterday and now the ES is once again pinned under its back-adjusted all-time high.  Expect upside volatility to be muted while the market wait on additional US/China or US/Canada trade war information.  No Size bias as overnight volume was too light.


 Posted by at 7:03 am

09/13/2018 Chat Room Live Event: Another One-On-One Member Mentoring Discussion

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Sep 132018

RG conducted an impromptu one on one member mentoring session in support of an intraday swinging educational example discussion on the forum. Key topics include contextual market structure “handicapping”, occurrence count, fixed-fractional risk modeling, capital efficiency considerations, and reasonable expectations for non-linear series performance.

Special thanks to member SharpeDan for making the audio only recording.

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 Posted by at 8:19 pm