10/15/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Oct 152021

Pandemic low jobless claims and strong corporate earnings fueled the S&P 500 to its largest up day in seven months.  The five largest banks reporting so far this week had a collective $30 billion in profit for the third quarter.  Goldman Sacs (GS) reports today.

Bitcoin topped $60,000 after reports said the SEC is ready to approve from ProShares and Invesco Ltd. ETFs linked to CME traded bitcoin futures.  Bitcoin ETFs from VanEck and Valkyrie could be approved and available by the end of October.

Moderna (MRNA) is up premarket after the FDA recommended Moderna booster vaccine shots for seniors and at-risk Americans.  The FDA is considering booster shots for the Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) vaccine.

The economic calendar includes Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing, and Import Prices @ 8:30am ET, followed by UoM Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories @ 10:00am ET.  The NY Fed John Williams speaks @ 12:20pm ET.

The 8:30am ET Retail Sales numbers and corporate earnings which includes TFC, PNC, GS, and SCHW are expected to be the main catalyst for Friday’s markets.

Volatility ticked up on Thursday and remains elevated.

Size bias is a divergent short into the 8:30am ET numbers.


 Posted by at 6:58 am

10/14/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 10/14/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Oct 142021

CPI numbers came in stable, but inflation is at a 13 year high despite a retreat in CPI element prices of clothing, cars, and airline prices.  However, Delta Airlines (DAL) CEO Ed Bastian warned of skyrocketing fuel prices and said that some of those costs were likely to be passed along to consumers.  Some economists think the CPI will rise again as soaring energy costs work through the economy.  Oil and coal prices continue to rise as Europe and China struggle with power shortages.

Last week, the Supreme Court struck down the pandemic era eviction moratorium, so expect rental prices of most vacated rentals to rise significantly and take CPI numbers higher with it.  Bloomberg reported that some rents in New York City have been raised over 50%.

For the short-term, market focus is on corporate earnings.  Earnings for Thursday include UNH, BAC, USB, WBA, WFC, PGR, MS, DPZ, C, and AA.

The economic calendar includes PPI and Claims @ 8:30am ET and Oil @ 11:00am ET.  The Fed’s Bostic speaks @ 10:00am ET and Barkin @ 1:00pm ET.

Volatility continues to tick down but remain elevated.

Size bias is a divergent short into the 8:30am ET numbers.


 Posted by at 7:23 am