04/02/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Apr 022020

Initial US market focus is on the 8:30am ET Unemployment Claims as the economic reality of the coronavirus manifests.  Estimates have a huge range, from less than 1 million to over 6.5 million.  Trade Balance @ 8:30am ET and Factory Orders @ 10:00am ET round out the economic calendar.

Coronavirus cases now top 950K and over 48K deaths.  The US has surpassed Italy and Spain combined in cases as exponential growth now tops 215K.  The US now has nearly 29% of the world’s active cases.

Oil prices are up about 10% after President Trump after he said he’s confident Saudi Arabia and Russia would work it out and that he plans to meet with US oil companies on Friday.

Boeing (BA) is offering voluntary layoff (buyout and early retirement) packages as the company struggles to stay afloat financially from the double whammy of their 737 MAX problems and the coronavirus.

Volatility continues to shrink but remains high by historical standards.

Size bias is long into the 8:30am ET Claims number on light Globex volume.


 Posted by at 6:58 am

04/01/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Apr 012020

During Trump’s daily coronavirus briefing on Tuesday, he warned that the US may suffer 100K to 240K deaths.  The US death count is currently just above 4K making the projections huge and the end of the virus crisis seem far off.  The US has already surpassed China’s 3.3K death count while Italy is approaching 12.5K and Spain is surging with over 9K deaths.  Global cases are approaching 875K (645K active) and the US 189K (177K active).

Factory data from around the world are showing that the global economy is slumping.  Yesterday closed out the first quarter as the worst since the 2008 financial crisis.  The DOW’s 23% slide was the worst since 1987.

The economic calendar is full, ADP @ 8:15am ET, Final Mfg PMI @ 9:45am ET, ISM PMIs and Construction Spending @ 10:00am ET, and Oil @ 10:30am ET.

Volatility continues to shrink and remain high, but there are a lot of analysts voicing opinions that the US and global market selloffs are not over yet.  Could the ES be looking at breaking 2000 in the near future or is all the negativity a sign that the bottom could be forming?

Size bias is short into the US session open.


 Posted by at 6:54 am