09/13/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 132019

Note: today’s worksheet is based on the ES December 2019 contract.  Volume remains higher on the ES September 2019 contract, but the shift to the December contract should be made sometime this morning.

Trump raised hopes slightly for a partial US/China trade deal in talking with reporters yesterday, “it’s something we would consider, I guess.”  However, Trump qualified that no part of a trade deal is easier than other parts and that he would rather secure a full US/China trade agreement.

The ECB cut rates yesterday an aggressive 0.5% and said they will restart a quantitative easing program.  US stock market index all-time highs are within reach for a test today if the bullish sentiment continues after 7 consecutive bullish days.

Broadcom (AVGO) is down over 1.5% this morning after beating expectations but expressed caution over future earnings.  CEO Hock Tan told investors, “the US/China trade dispute is turning into an extended affair with lots of twists and turns in uncertainty… and we are assuming conditions (are) not going  to change from what we’re seeing now.  And if we make that assumption for next year, you probably see a very uncertain 2020.”

The economic calendar focus is Retail Sales @ 8:30am ET and UoM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00am ET.  Also, on the calendar are Import Prices @ 8:30am ET and Business Inventories @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility is shrinking as the ES tries to move higher.  The ES 5-day ATR has dropped from the 30s down to 24.5.  Sans a change in trader expectations, expect price movement to the upside to be muted.  Size bias is long into the 8:30am ET Retail Trade numbers.


 Posted by at 6:23 am

09/12/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 122019

Today is ES rollover day, the ES December 2019 contract is now the front month.  The ES September 2019 will continue to trade the most volume through sometime tomorrow morning.  A worksheet for each contract is provided today.

After China said they would exempt some US goods from tariffs, Trump tweeted late yesterday that the US would delay tariffs on some China-made goods as a gesture of good will as both sides prepare for the next rounds of trade talks which are pushed to October.

The ECB is expected to announce @ 7:45am ET and explain at a 8:30am ET press conference a major stimulus package with possibly deeper negative interest rates and a restart of quantitative easing.

Privately held Purdue Pharma and maker of OcyContin has reached a tentative settlement with 27 states for $10B to $12B.  The Sackler family will give up control, declare bankruptcy, and turn Purdue Pharma into a for-profit trust.  The proceeds will go to the plaintiffs.  An additional 16 state attorney generals have not agreed to the tentative settlement.

Oracle (ORCL) is up premarket after the database company missed expectations and co-CEO Mark Hurd announced a medical leave of absence.  Executive CEO Larry Ellison will step up to fill the void during Hurd’s absence.  Earnings include AVGO, KR, and DLTH.

The economic calendar focus is the PPI numbers and Unemployment Claims @ 8:30am ET.  Volatility continues to settle in around the 30 point ES 5-day ATR.  The ECB announcement could move the markets this morning.  Size bias is long into the ECB announcement.


ES Sep 2019 contract


ES Dec 2019 contract

 Posted by at 6:49 am