11/13/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Nov 132018
 

The ES is up overnight after yesterday’s big selloff on prospects increase for a trade meeting between Trump and China’s President Xi Jinging at the G-20 Summit in Argentina starting Nov 30.  A China newspaper reported that Liu He, China’s chief trade negotiator will fly to D.C. to setup face to face meetings between the US and China in Argentina.  Oil prices are down for the 12th session after Trump tweeted that oil prices “should be much lower based on supply” after Saudi Arabia announced a 500K barrel per day cut.  Home Depot stock is up pre-market after beating expectations and raising forecasts.  Earnings today include TSN, TLRY, AAP, and BZH.  A very light economic calendar with the Federal Budget Balance @ 2:00pm EST.  The Fed’s Brainard speaks @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility remains high and there’s plenty of room for both the bulls and the bears to work.  No Size bias this morning as Globex volume was mixed.  Size bought into yesterday’s selloff.

 

 Posted by at 7:08 am

11/12/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Nov 122018
 

Alibaba’s $30.8B in sales for Singles Day brought out the ES bulls on during Asian session, but the current realities of a Pending rate hike and lowering of corporate expectations has erased the ES bullish gains during the European session.  The US dollar is at 16-month highs on Fed rate hike expectations.  Oil prices are up as Saudi Arabia announced they would reduce exports half a million barrels a day to offset October oil price declines.  Yesterday was US Veteran’s Day, however US government offices and banks are closed today since the holiday fell on a weekend this year.  This could translate to lighter volume and whippier price movement today.  Also, no economic data released today.  The Fed’s Daly speaks @ 2:30pm EST.  Volatility remains high, although it’s been dampening with the 5-day ATR down from the 70s to 41 ES points.  No Size bias as overnight volume was both lighter than recent and mixed.

 

 Posted by at 7:02 am

05/23/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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May 232018
 

US and global stock markets are a little rattled by Trump comments concerning a scheduled June 12 Singapore meeting with North Korea and US trade war progress with China.  The US and South Korea held a joint military exercise last week and now Trump is saying there’s a good chance the North Korean meeting will not take place on June 12, but still a good chance it will at some point in the future.  About the trade negotiations with China, Trump said it’s “a start” but he was “not pleased” with the progress.  US retailers Target and Lowes missed earnings estimates while jeweler Tiffany & Co. crushed their expectations.  The economic calendar focus is Oil @ 10:30am and Fed minutes @ 2:00pm EST.  Before the main events, we have PMI Composite Flash @ 9:45am EST and New Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.  The ES has pulled back enough where upside volatility should not be hindered as we’ve experienced over the last week.  Volatility continues to contract, but there’s more room to expand now.  Size bias is short on increased Globex volume into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:46 am

05/16/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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May 162018
 

North Korea is threatening to pull out of a meeting with Trump scheduled for June 12 in Singapore.  The US is pushing for total denuclearization which North Korea continues to balk at.  North Korea issued the statement “If the US is trying to drive us into a corner to force out unilateral nuclear abandonment, we will no longer be interested in such dialogue and cannot but reconsider our proceeding to the DPRK-US summit.”  The US Supreme Court earlier this week lifted a ban on sports betting in New Jersey.  The decision is causing a lot of activity in the sports business world including potential sports-betting mergers and a $2.2B purchase of the NFL Carolina Panthers by hedge fund billionaire David Pepper.  The dollar continues to inch higher as yesterday’s Retail Sales number were solid and expectations are set the Fed will raise rates sooner rather than later.  The economic calendar focus is Permits and Housing Starts @ 8:30am EST, Industrial Production @ 9:15am EST, and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Earnings today include CSCO, M, JACK, and TWO.  Volatility continues to remain muted with higher probability for a pickup to the downside rather than the upside.  Size bias is leaning long into the 8:30am EST housing numbers.

 

 Posted by at 6:56 am

01/25/2018 Martin Luther King Day

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Jan 152018
 

US Stock markets are closed today for the Martin Luther King Federal holiday.  DTG will resume posting tomorrow.  Do something, enjoy the day away from the markets!

 Posted by at 6:07 am

12/22/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 222017
 

The ES is up slightly overnight as trading volume continues to dry up into the long Christmas weekend and as many traders take the rest of the year off.  Congress narrowly avoided a government shut down by passing yet another temporary spending bill.  Bitcoin’s wild ride continues as the cyprotocurrency has dropped nearly 40% this week, from a high near $20,000 to a low of $12,560.  The new CBOE and CME bitcoin instruments have finally provided traders a way to short…  The economic calendar focus is Durable Goods @ 8:30am EST and New Home Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 am EST.  It’s possible price whippiness could continue today; it’s expected that price movement will start dying down as the day wears on.  Size bias is short into the Durable Goods numbers; however volume was so light overnight that the Size bias should not be given much weight…

 

 Posted by at 6:45 am