CPI numbers came in stable, but inflation is at a 13 year high despite a retreat in CPI element prices of clothing, cars, and airline prices.  However, Delta Airlines (DAL) CEO Ed Bastian warned of skyrocketing fuel prices and said that some of those costs were likely to be passed along to consumers.  Some economists think the CPI will rise again as soaring energy costs work through the economy.  Oil and coal prices continue to rise as Europe and China struggle with power shortages.

Last week, the Supreme Court struck down the pandemic era eviction moratorium, so expect rental prices of most vacated rentals to rise significantly and take CPI numbers higher with it.  Bloomberg reported that some rents in New York City have been raised over 50%.

For the short-term, market focus is on corporate earnings.  Earnings for Thursday include UNH, BAC, USB, WBA, WFC, PGR, MS, DPZ, C, and AA.

The economic calendar includes PPI and Claims @ 8:30am ET and Oil @ 11:00am ET.  The Fed’s Bostic speaks @ 10:00am ET and Barkin @ 1:00pm ET.

Volatility continues to tick down but remain elevated.

Size bias is a divergent short into the 8:30am ET numbers.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced Fed’s James Bullard’s remarks that trade wars with China, Mexico, and the EU put a dark cloud over the US economy.  Powell said yesterday “as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2% objective.”  Fedwatch now places the probability of a interest rate decrease at 53% for July.

Presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders will be crashing Walmart’s annual meeting at the invitation of WalMart workers.  He expected to push Walmart to raise wages higher than the $11/hour minimum wage.

Earnings today include FIVE, AEO, GILL, CPB, CLDR, SFIX, MDB, and UNFI.  The economic calendar is full with focus on the 8:15am EST ADP and 10:00am EST ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.  Also on the calendar are Final Services PMI @ 9:45am EST, Oil @ 10:30am EST and Beige Book @ 2:00pm EST.

Fed speakers include Vice-Chair Clarida @ 9:45am EST and Bowman @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility is up again due to yesterday’s Fed induced rally.  US stocks had their largest move in over 5 months.  Size bias is long into the US session open.

US stock and futures markets are closed today for Good Friday.  We’ll resume posting on Monday, April 22.  Enjoy the long weekend!

Confusion and doubt are creeping into the markets over exactly what was accomplished during Trump and China’s Xi Jinping over Sat dinner’s trade talks.  The WH economic advisor Larry Kudlow tried to detail specifics from the meeting but only conflicted with trade talk information released by the Chinese.  The start date of the 90-day truce is in question as Kudlow says it’s Dec 1 and China said it was Jan 1.  With no agreement written down and signed, markets are a little nervous.  Meanwhile yields between the 3 and 5-year note have inverted for the first time in over 10 years suggesting that the US economy is slowing.  Nothing of significance on today’s US economic calendar.  The Fed’s Williams holds a press conference @ 10:00am EST.  Earnings include TOL, DG, AZO, MRVL, and HPE.  Volatility remains elevated, however could shrink into today’s US close as US stock markets will be closed National Day of Mourning for former US President George H.W. Bush.  Size bias is short on lighter Globex volume into the US session open.