03/18/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Mar 182019
 

It appears unlikely that a US/China summit between Trump and Xi Jinping will happen in April according to sources of the South China Morning Post.  One source said the summit might happen in June.  Preparing the text for a US/China trade agreement is taking more time than Trump had anticipated.

Boeing remains under scrutiny as flight recorder data shows the 737 Max 8 crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia have “clear similarities.”  Boeing is preparing a software update to better handle “erroneous sensor inputs” which appear to be involved in the chain of events leading into both crashes.

In merger news, Fidelity National (FIS) has agreed to acquire UK-based payment processor Worldpay (WP) for stock and cash valued around $43B, a greater than 13.5% premium to Worldpay’s Friday closing price.  The earnings calendar is light: TLRY, LL, SCS, OSTK.

The economic calendar is also very light: NAHB Home Builders Index @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility for today is a tough call given it’s a low news Monday with the ES working through significant resistance.  We could see a significant move up, or a significant move down, or the ES could settle in and do not much of anything…  Friday’s 2836.50 high and 2817.25 low are the key areas for the ES to clear if there’s to be significant movement today.  No Size bias as Size wasn’t interested in trading overnight.

 

 Posted by at 6:23 am

03/15/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Mar 152019
 

Trump said yesterday that over the next three or four weeks, the US would know where the US/China trade agreement stands.  Meanwhile the Chinese state media said the US and China have made “concrete progress” on trade pact text after Vice Premier Liu He spoke with US representatives Steven Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer via telephone.

Facebook (FB) announced their Chief Product Officer Chris Cox and WhatsApp business development leader Chris Daniels have resigned as Facebook is shifting their focus to a “privacy-focused social platform.”  Broadcom (AVGO) is up nearly 5% after beating expectations.  Adobe (ADBE) is down over 2% and Oracle (ORCL) is down over 3% after lowering second quarter guidance.  Boeing (BA) is also down again after announcing they would pause delivery of their 737 MAX planes.

The SEC sued the German automaker Volkswagen (VLKAY) for perpetrating “a massive fraud” during the diesel emissions scandal.  Volkswagen had announced they were cutting 5K to 7K jobs as they move away from gas powered vehicles to focus on electric.

The economic calendar focus is 10:00am UoM Consumer Sentiment.  Minor reports include Empire State @ 8:30am EST, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production @ 9:15am EST, UoM Inflation Expectations and JOLTS @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility remains steady.  The 2825s-2834s area of technical resistance remains as a barrier for the bulls to work through.  No Size bias as Globex trading was light.

 

 Posted by at 6:49 am

12/04/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 042018
 

Confusion and doubt are creeping into the markets over exactly what was accomplished during Trump and China’s Xi Jinping over Sat dinner’s trade talks.  The WH economic advisor Larry Kudlow tried to detail specifics from the meeting but only conflicted with trade talk information released by the Chinese.  The start date of the 90-day truce is in question as Kudlow says it’s Dec 1 and China said it was Jan 1.  With no agreement written down and signed, markets are a little nervous.  Meanwhile yields between the 3 and 5-year note have inverted for the first time in over 10 years suggesting that the US economy is slowing.  Nothing of significance on today’s US economic calendar.  The Fed’s Williams holds a press conference @ 10:00am EST.  Earnings include TOL, DG, AZO, MRVL, and HPE.  Volatility remains elevated, however could shrink into today’s US close as US stock markets will be closed National Day of Mourning for former US President George H.W. Bush.  Size bias is short on lighter Globex volume into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:51 am

05/23/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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May 232018
 

US and global stock markets are a little rattled by Trump comments concerning a scheduled June 12 Singapore meeting with North Korea and US trade war progress with China.  The US and South Korea held a joint military exercise last week and now Trump is saying there’s a good chance the North Korean meeting will not take place on June 12, but still a good chance it will at some point in the future.  About the trade negotiations with China, Trump said it’s “a start” but he was “not pleased” with the progress.  US retailers Target and Lowes missed earnings estimates while jeweler Tiffany & Co. crushed their expectations.  The economic calendar focus is Oil @ 10:30am and Fed minutes @ 2:00pm EST.  Before the main events, we have PMI Composite Flash @ 9:45am EST and New Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.  The ES has pulled back enough where upside volatility should not be hindered as we’ve experienced over the last week.  Volatility continues to contract, but there’s more room to expand now.  Size bias is short on increased Globex volume into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:46 am

05/16/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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May 162018
 

North Korea is threatening to pull out of a meeting with Trump scheduled for June 12 in Singapore.  The US is pushing for total denuclearization which North Korea continues to balk at.  North Korea issued the statement “If the US is trying to drive us into a corner to force out unilateral nuclear abandonment, we will no longer be interested in such dialogue and cannot but reconsider our proceeding to the DPRK-US summit.”  The US Supreme Court earlier this week lifted a ban on sports betting in New Jersey.  The decision is causing a lot of activity in the sports business world including potential sports-betting mergers and a $2.2B purchase of the NFL Carolina Panthers by hedge fund billionaire David Pepper.  The dollar continues to inch higher as yesterday’s Retail Sales number were solid and expectations are set the Fed will raise rates sooner rather than later.  The economic calendar focus is Permits and Housing Starts @ 8:30am EST, Industrial Production @ 9:15am EST, and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Earnings today include CSCO, M, JACK, and TWO.  Volatility continues to remain muted with higher probability for a pickup to the downside rather than the upside.  Size bias is leaning long into the 8:30am EST housing numbers.

 

 Posted by at 6:56 am

01/25/2018 Martin Luther King Day

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Jan 152018
 

US Stock markets are closed today for the Martin Luther King Federal holiday.  DTG will resume posting tomorrow.  Do something, enjoy the day away from the markets!

 Posted by at 6:07 am

12/22/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 222017
 

The ES is up slightly overnight as trading volume continues to dry up into the long Christmas weekend and as many traders take the rest of the year off.  Congress narrowly avoided a government shut down by passing yet another temporary spending bill.  Bitcoin’s wild ride continues as the cyprotocurrency has dropped nearly 40% this week, from a high near $20,000 to a low of $12,560.  The new CBOE and CME bitcoin instruments have finally provided traders a way to short…  The economic calendar focus is Durable Goods @ 8:30am EST and New Home Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 am EST.  It’s possible price whippiness could continue today; it’s expected that price movement will start dying down as the day wears on.  Size bias is short into the Durable Goods numbers; however volume was so light overnight that the Size bias should not be given much weight…

 

 Posted by at 6:45 am