05/17/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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May 172018
 

Yesterday’s Oil report surprised, showing a 1.4M reduction in US oil supplies.  Brent crude has climbed to $80/barrel, a price not seen since November 2014.  Market focus will be on another round of trade negotiations between the US and China.  China’s Vice Premier Liu He and US Treasurer Secretary Steve Mnuchin meet in a summit in D.C. today.  economic calendar is light with focus on Philly Fed and weekly Claims @ 8:30am EST.  Cisco is down over 4% pre-market after slightly beating expectations but with a lukewarm forecast in the middle of analysts’ range.  On deck today are WMT, JWN, JCP, and AMAT.  Volatility continues to shrink, however comments from the US/China summit could change that today.  Size bias is leaning short on light overnight volume into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:23 am

05/16/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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May 162018
 

North Korea is threatening to pull out of a meeting with Trump scheduled for June 12 in Singapore.  The US is pushing for total denuclearization which North Korea continues to balk at.  North Korea issued the statement “If the US is trying to drive us into a corner to force out unilateral nuclear abandonment, we will no longer be interested in such dialogue and cannot but reconsider our proceeding to the DPRK-US summit.”  The US Supreme Court earlier this week lifted a ban on sports betting in New Jersey.  The decision is causing a lot of activity in the sports business world including potential sports-betting mergers and a $2.2B purchase of the NFL Carolina Panthers by hedge fund billionaire David Pepper.  The dollar continues to inch higher as yesterday’s Retail Sales number were solid and expectations are set the Fed will raise rates sooner rather than later.  The economic calendar focus is Permits and Housing Starts @ 8:30am EST, Industrial Production @ 9:15am EST, and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Earnings today include CSCO, M, JACK, and TWO.  Volatility continues to remain muted with higher probability for a pickup to the downside rather than the upside.  Size bias is leaning long into the 8:30am EST housing numbers.

 

 Posted by at 6:56 am

01/25/2018 Martin Luther King Day

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Jan 152018
 

US Stock markets are closed today for the Martin Luther King Federal holiday.  DTG will resume posting tomorrow.  Do something, enjoy the day away from the markets!

 Posted by at 6:07 am

12/22/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 222017
 

The ES is up slightly overnight as trading volume continues to dry up into the long Christmas weekend and as many traders take the rest of the year off.  Congress narrowly avoided a government shut down by passing yet another temporary spending bill.  Bitcoin’s wild ride continues as the cyprotocurrency has dropped nearly 40% this week, from a high near $20,000 to a low of $12,560.  The new CBOE and CME bitcoin instruments have finally provided traders a way to short…  The economic calendar focus is Durable Goods @ 8:30am EST and New Home Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 am EST.  It’s possible price whippiness could continue today; it’s expected that price movement will start dying down as the day wears on.  Size bias is short into the Durable Goods numbers; however volume was so light overnight that the Size bias should not be given much weight…

 

 Posted by at 6:45 am

09/25/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 252017
 

Overnight ES action was mixed as Chancellor Angela Merkel polled a narrower margin of victory in the German elections and the far-right Social Democrats gained ground putting the German government into limbo until Christmas.  In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called a snap national election to dissolve the country’s parliament later this week as he seeks support for a new government to restart the Japan’s failing economy.  There’s no US economic data scheduled for today, however there’s Fed speakers in Dudley @ 8:30am EST and Evans @ 12:40pm EST.  Also, ECB’s Draghi is testifying starting @ 9:00am EST.  Volatility continues to remain constrained to the upside and if Friday’s lows are cleared, then maybe we’ll see some downside expansion today.  The bulls often take advantage of no data Mondays, but volatility to the upside will most like remain constrained.  Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:33 am

09/20/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 202017
 

It’s a Fed day, the day the US stock markets have been waiting for all week.  The Fed is expected to leave rates alone and start the unwinding of their $4.5 trillion balance sheet.  The announcement could send stocks in either direction although the last few Fed announcements have had little impact on the markets as the Fed has been doing a better job of telescoping their policy changes since starting to raise rates.  Trump continues to beat his “America first” drum, this time to the UN General Assembly where he also said the US would destroy North Korea if the US was forced to act.  For today’s economic data, we have Existing Home Sales @ 8:30am EST and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Volatility is getting very tight at 8.5 points ATR over the last 5 days.  Sooner or later we’ll get a range expansion day and a Fed day has a better chance than most.  Size bias is short into the Home Sales report.

 

 Posted by at 6:33 am