06/13/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jun 132024

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh new record highs after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers came in cooler than expected.  The Fed held rates steady and slashed projected rate cuts to 1 in 2024, down from 3 forecasted in March.

However, the Fed noted modest progress on inflation.  Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed “welcome[d]” Wednesday’s CPI print while noting it would need to see similar future readings to remain confident in inflation’s progress.

Broadcom (AVGO) jumped over 12% after hours after beating earnings expectations and raising their chips used in AI applications by 10% from $10 billion to $11 billion.  The company also announced a 10-for-1 stock split set for July 15.  Broadcom provides lower cost chips than Nvidia and is believed to be making custom chips for Alphabet and Meta.

Tesla (TSLA) shareholder votes will be tallied today over the question of CEO Elon Musk’s $56 billion lucrative compensation.  Many Wall Street analysts expect Musk to secure the compensation package that was awarded in 2018 but was struck down by a Delaware court earlier this year.  Tesla’s board and Musk have submitted a new pay package and have been advocating for shareholders to approve.

Meanwhile this week, Musk is getting hit on multiple fronts.  On Tuesday, the Employees’ Retirement System of Rhode Island (SRSRI) filed a Delaware lawsuit alleging Musk and his brother Kimbal Musk sold $30 billion of TSLA stock using inside information that Elon would use the funds to purchase Twitter (now X).  Additionally, the WSJ published an expose alleging Musk had numerous inappropriate relationships with SpaceX employees.

Corporate earnings include Adobe (ADBE) after the bell.

The economic calendar includes PPI and Unemployment Claims @ 8:30am ET.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and NY Fed President John Williams participate in a moderated discussion at the Economic Club of NY starting @ 12:00pm ET.

Volatility ticked up on Wednesday on reactions to the CPI numbers and afternoon Fed activity.

Whale bias is leaning bullish on light overnight large trader volume.


 Posted by at 6:16 am

06/12/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jun 122024

Market focus is the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers set for release @ 8:30am ET.  The CPI numbers are expected to remain stable and will be used in the Fed’s interest rate decision-making process.

The Fed releases their monetary policy statement and economic projections @ 2:00pm ET, followed by a Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference.  The dot plots of the economic projections will update Fed member’s current projections on interest rate changes.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched new record highs as Apple (APPL) surged 7% to a new record high as investors digested Apple’s new AI Intelligence.  The move was Apple’s best single day performance since November 2022.

AI intelligence will enable Siri to parse information from messages like phone numbers and addresses.  Siri will also be able to find photos in a phone’s photo library based on voice prompts.  The AI intelligence will be added to most Apple devices will likely drive an upgrade cycle across all their devices.

Corporate earnings after the bell include Broadcom (AVGO).

In addition to the 8:30am ET CPI numbers and 2:00pm ET Fed monetary policy statement and 2:30pm ET Fed Chair Powell press conference, the economic calendar includes Crude Oil Inventories @ 2:30pm ET.

Volatility held steady on Tuesday with potential to pop with a directional move today.

No whale bias as overnight large trader volume was too light to be significant.




 Posted by at 4:07 am

11/23/2023 Thanksgiving Holiday

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Nov 232023

US stock markets are closed today, Thursday, November 23 for Thanksgiving.  US stock markets will be open tomorrow for a shortened, morning session with likely little volume.  Most US based traders take this as an opportunity for a 4-day weekend.  Happy Thanksgiving!



 Posted by at 7:58 am

09/26/2022 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 262022

As global central banks raise and lower (as the case with Turkey) interest rates, global currencies are taking a wild ride.  While American tourist are enjoying the strong dollar, retirement accounts, institutional portfolios, corporate earnings, and crypto holds are feeling pain caused by the currency movements.

Strong tech companies are feeling pain.  Nvidia is down 57% YTD, AMD is down 52% YTD, and Amazon is down 32% YTD, all primarily due to interest rates and the currency markets.

It’s rare times when a premier company like FedEx misses earnings by $2 and announces cost cuts of $3 billion.  Nike (NKE) posts earnings on Thursday and given they are a global company like FedEx, currencies will likely negatively impact the current and foreseeable future earnings.

The pound has hit a historic low of 1.0327 after release of last week’s new Conservative government ‘mini-budget’ and the euro has hit a 20-yuear low of 0.9689 against the dollar.

Oil prices continue to weaken as $100/barrel seems far in the rear-view mirror as prices return to Jan 2022 prices.  WTI for November hit $78.49/barrel while Brent contracts are trading around $85.50.

There are no corporate earnings of note for Monday.

The economic calendar is light with Chicago Fed @ 8:30am ET and Dallas Fed @ 10:30am ET.  Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility remains high.

No Whale bias as large traders leaned bearish overnight but not with enough volume to be significant.


 Posted by at 7:26 am

09/23/2022 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 232022

Fed Chair Jerome Powell could shake up the markets once again this afternoon.  He is set to give the opening remarks for a Fed Listens event in Washington D.C. @ 2:00pm ET.  Given the fireworks his press conference generated on Wednesday, there is potential for more this afternoon.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has decided that zero-commission brokerages are not ripping their customers off and will allow brokerages to continue being paid for order flow (PFOF) from market makers like Citadel Securities or Virtu Americas.  Rather than an all-out PFOF ban, the SEC thinks more price transparency and requiring brokers to execute at the best possible price at the time will reduce the problem of small investors paying too much and allow commission-free brokerages like Robinhood to exist.  One study showed that the differences in prices between fee brokerages and commission-free brokerages cost investors up to $34 billion per year.

Stocks are down overnight with some global markets hitting 2-year lows as global central banks crank up the rate hikes.  German PMIs showed a deep contraction in manufacturing.

In the US, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool is forecasting third quarter growth of 0.3% and the bond market continues to give recession warnings with the 2-year rising to 4.19%.  Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs cut their full year target for the S&P 500 to 3600.

Speaking of big banks, they got Congressional pressure on Thursday to raise savings interest rates.  While Fed rates have increased significantly, big bank savings interest rates have not moved from 0.01%.  The banks are posting 10s of billions in quarterly profits, around 25% of gross revenue, catching the ire of lawmakers.  Many regional banks now paying 2% or more on savings accounts.

Costco (COST) is down over 3% premarket after beating earnings but warning of narrowing profit margins.

Corporate earnings include Carnival (CCL).

The economic calendar focus is the Flash PMIs @ 9:45am ET.

Volatility remains high.

Whale bias is short into the US session open on decent large trader volume.


 Posted by at 7:27 am

06/20/2022 Juneteenth Federal Holiday

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Jun 202022

Ok, I’ll admit that I totally forgot about this new Federal holiday and went to work as usual this morning… On June 17, 2021, Congress passed legislation making June 19th a Federal holiday called Juneteenth National Independence Day. The date marks the day that Union General Gordon Granger’s June 19, 1865 proclaimed that Texas was freed from slavery. Texas, along with other Southern states had outlawed Abraham Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation. This year, the first Federally recognized Juneteenth falls on Monday, June 20. US stock markets are closed today.

 Posted by at 6:52 am