01/17/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 01/17/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jan 172019
 

US/China trade war concerns continue to cast a shadow over the markets.  Another 2-day meeting that includes China’s vice premier Lieu He is confirmed to start Jan 30 in the US.  The US government shutdown is now in day 27 and there was concern the next US/China meeting would be delayed as the self-imposed March 1 deadline is quickly approaching.  Further concerns were cast by US actions that US federal prosecutors are investigating allegations that Huawei Technologies stole trade secrets from US companies.  Additionally, a bi-partisan bill was launched in Congress seeking to ban US companies from exporting goods that violated State Department sanctions; specifically, Chinese company Huawei and ZTE Corp.  The economic calendar is light with Philly Fed and Claims @ 8:30am EST.  Housing Starts will not be released due to the government shutdown.  The Fed’s Quarles speaks @ 10:45am EST.  JPM and GS both beat expectations yesterday.  CSX also beat but warned of slowing growth which sent the stock down over 4% this morning.  On deck today are NFLX, MS, AXP, BBT, JBHT, and KEY.  Volatility is remaining steady with price moving easier to the downside than the upside.  Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:08 am

01/16/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 01/16/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jan 162019
 

UK Prime Minister Theresa May suffered the worst parliamentary defeat in history when her Brexit agreement lost by 230 votes which included 100 votes from members of her own party.  A vote of no confidence was triggered which will be debated today.  It’s not looking good for May who may need to step down as UK’s PM soon.  Meanwhile US/China trade war jitters continue.  Rep. Sen Chuck Grassley said there has been little progress in structural changes that include “intellectual property, stealing trade secrets, putting pressure on corporations to share information with the Chinese government and industries.”  However Chinese trade negotiators will be coming to the US in a couple of weeks to continue discussions.

The economic calendar is light with Import and Export Prices @ 8:30am EST, NAHB Housing Market Index @ 10:00am EST, and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Retail Sales will not be released due to the 26th day of the government shutdown.  In corporate news, SNAP is down over 10% after the sudden resignation of their CFO, the 3rd executive to leave in 4 months.  JP missed expectations and BAC, UAL, and DAL topped.  Earnings today include GS, USB, CSX, SCHW, and the traditional start of the earnings season AA.

Volatility seems to be leveling out with the 5-day ES ATR hanging out around 30 points per day.  If volatility is to increase, it most likely will be to the downside.  Size bias long into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:33 am

12/04/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 12/04/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Dec 042018
 

Confusion and doubt are creeping into the markets over exactly what was accomplished during Trump and China’s Xi Jinping over Sat dinner’s trade talks.  The WH economic advisor Larry Kudlow tried to detail specifics from the meeting but only conflicted with trade talk information released by the Chinese.  The start date of the 90-day truce is in question as Kudlow says it’s Dec 1 and China said it was Jan 1.  With no agreement written down and signed, markets are a little nervous.  Meanwhile yields between the 3 and 5-year note have inverted for the first time in over 10 years suggesting that the US economy is slowing.  Nothing of significance on today’s US economic calendar.  The Fed’s Williams holds a press conference @ 10:00am EST.  Earnings include TOL, DG, AZO, MRVL, and HPE.  Volatility remains elevated, however could shrink into today’s US close as US stock markets will be closed National Day of Mourning for former US President George H.W. Bush.  Size bias is short on lighter Globex volume into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:51 am

05/23/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 05/23/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
May 232018
 

US and global stock markets are a little rattled by Trump comments concerning a scheduled June 12 Singapore meeting with North Korea and US trade war progress with China.  The US and South Korea held a joint military exercise last week and now Trump is saying there’s a good chance the North Korean meeting will not take place on June 12, but still a good chance it will at some point in the future.  About the trade negotiations with China, Trump said it’s “a start” but he was “not pleased” with the progress.  US retailers Target and Lowes missed earnings estimates while jeweler Tiffany & Co. crushed their expectations.  The economic calendar focus is Oil @ 10:30am and Fed minutes @ 2:00pm EST.  Before the main events, we have PMI Composite Flash @ 9:45am EST and New Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.  The ES has pulled back enough where upside volatility should not be hindered as we’ve experienced over the last week.  Volatility continues to contract, but there’s more room to expand now.  Size bias is short on increased Globex volume into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:46 am

05/16/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 05/16/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
May 162018
 

North Korea is threatening to pull out of a meeting with Trump scheduled for June 12 in Singapore.  The US is pushing for total denuclearization which North Korea continues to balk at.  North Korea issued the statement “If the US is trying to drive us into a corner to force out unilateral nuclear abandonment, we will no longer be interested in such dialogue and cannot but reconsider our proceeding to the DPRK-US summit.”  The US Supreme Court earlier this week lifted a ban on sports betting in New Jersey.  The decision is causing a lot of activity in the sports business world including potential sports-betting mergers and a $2.2B purchase of the NFL Carolina Panthers by hedge fund billionaire David Pepper.  The dollar continues to inch higher as yesterday’s Retail Sales number were solid and expectations are set the Fed will raise rates sooner rather than later.  The economic calendar focus is Permits and Housing Starts @ 8:30am EST, Industrial Production @ 9:15am EST, and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Earnings today include CSCO, M, JACK, and TWO.  Volatility continues to remain muted with higher probability for a pickup to the downside rather than the upside.  Size bias is leaning long into the 8:30am EST housing numbers.

 

 Posted by at 6:56 am

01/25/2018 Martin Luther King Day

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 01/25/2018 Martin Luther King Day
Jan 152018
 

US Stock markets are closed today for the Martin Luther King Federal holiday.  DTG will resume posting tomorrow.  Do something, enjoy the day away from the markets!

 Posted by at 6:07 am

12/22/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 12/22/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Dec 222017
 

The ES is up slightly overnight as trading volume continues to dry up into the long Christmas weekend and as many traders take the rest of the year off.  Congress narrowly avoided a government shut down by passing yet another temporary spending bill.  Bitcoin’s wild ride continues as the cyprotocurrency has dropped nearly 40% this week, from a high near $20,000 to a low of $12,560.  The new CBOE and CME bitcoin instruments have finally provided traders a way to short…  The economic calendar focus is Durable Goods @ 8:30am EST and New Home Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 am EST.  It’s possible price whippiness could continue today; it’s expected that price movement will start dying down as the day wears on.  Size bias is short into the Durable Goods numbers; however volume was so light overnight that the Size bias should not be given much weight…

 

 Posted by at 6:45 am