01/18/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jan 182018
 

US stocks indexes once again closed at record highs yesterday, a complete erasure of Tuesday’s selloff.  The new US Tax law is starting to show some dividends.  Apple announced plans to repatriate a portion of its overseas cash.  The move creates a one-time US tax bill of $38B and an announcement to pump $350B into the US economy over 5 years through updating their company sites, investing in a new campus powered by green energy, hiring 20,000 US employees, initiating a stock buyback program and increasing dividend.  Market focus remains on corporate earnings.  AXP, BBT, BK, KEY, and MS are on deck today.  The economic calendar includes Housing Starts, Philly Fed, and Claims @ 8:30am EST. and Oil @ 11:00am EST.  After yesterday’s big move, volatility may take a rest today.  However, as written on Tuesday, if the 2810s are cleared, the bulls may run.  Size bias is short into the 8:30am numbers on relatively lighter overnight volume.

 

 Posted by at 6:56 am

01/17/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jan 172018
 

The US east coast is being hit by another round of wintery weather.  Mixed words between the US and North Korea created a range expansion bearish move yesterday.  The ES is rebounding, and focus remains on corporate earnings.  GE and Ford are tumbling this morning.  GE’s CEO hinted of breaking the company into smaller companies and Ford expects lower profits in 2018.  Ford also said it would expand its line of electrified vehicles to 40 models, including 16 full electric vehicles by 2022.  Meanwhile, Infiniti announced they would go 100% electric vehicles by 2021.  Today’s earnings include the big banks GS, BAC, and USB.  The economic calendar focus is Industrial Production @ 9:15am EST, and the Fed’s Beige Book @ 2:00pm EST.  Volatility has loosened up because of yesterday’s drop.  Today’s volatility will depend on reactions to corporate earnings.  Size bias is long into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:48 am

01/25/2018 Martin Luther King Day

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Jan 152018
 

US Stock markets are closed today for the Martin Luther King Federal holiday.  DTG will resume posting tomorrow.  Do something, enjoy the day away from the markets!

 Posted by at 6:07 am

12/22/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 222017
 

The ES is up slightly overnight as trading volume continues to dry up into the long Christmas weekend and as many traders take the rest of the year off.  Congress narrowly avoided a government shut down by passing yet another temporary spending bill.  Bitcoin’s wild ride continues as the cyprotocurrency has dropped nearly 40% this week, from a high near $20,000 to a low of $12,560.  The new CBOE and CME bitcoin instruments have finally provided traders a way to short…  The economic calendar focus is Durable Goods @ 8:30am EST and New Home Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 am EST.  It’s possible price whippiness could continue today; it’s expected that price movement will start dying down as the day wears on.  Size bias is short into the Durable Goods numbers; however volume was so light overnight that the Size bias should not be given much weight…

 

 Posted by at 6:45 am

09/25/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 252017
 

Overnight ES action was mixed as Chancellor Angela Merkel polled a narrower margin of victory in the German elections and the far-right Social Democrats gained ground putting the German government into limbo until Christmas.  In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called a snap national election to dissolve the country’s parliament later this week as he seeks support for a new government to restart the Japan’s failing economy.  There’s no US economic data scheduled for today, however there’s Fed speakers in Dudley @ 8:30am EST and Evans @ 12:40pm EST.  Also, ECB’s Draghi is testifying starting @ 9:00am EST.  Volatility continues to remain constrained to the upside and if Friday’s lows are cleared, then maybe we’ll see some downside expansion today.  The bulls often take advantage of no data Mondays, but volatility to the upside will most like remain constrained.  Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:33 am

09/20/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 202017
 

It’s a Fed day, the day the US stock markets have been waiting for all week.  The Fed is expected to leave rates alone and start the unwinding of their $4.5 trillion balance sheet.  The announcement could send stocks in either direction although the last few Fed announcements have had little impact on the markets as the Fed has been doing a better job of telescoping their policy changes since starting to raise rates.  Trump continues to beat his “America first” drum, this time to the UN General Assembly where he also said the US would destroy North Korea if the US was forced to act.  For today’s economic data, we have Existing Home Sales @ 8:30am EST and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Volatility is getting very tight at 8.5 points ATR over the last 5 days.  Sooner or later we’ll get a range expansion day and a Fed day has a better chance than most.  Size bias is short into the Home Sales report.

 

 Posted by at 6:33 am