Corporate earnings and US-China trade war are in focus.  On Wednesday, President Trump confirmed that a trade war with China is underway while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent conflicted with Trump by suggesting that the US-China tariff pause could be extended.  Trump is threatening China with new sanctions after recent export controls from Beijing.

Gold continues to rise to new all-time highs on the heightened US-China tensions and bets the Fed will increase monetary easing through the end of the year to support the US labor market.  The yellow metal is up over 5% this week and has pulled silver up 3% with it.

Meanwhile, US banks are posting strong earnings and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSM) net quarterly profit is up nearly 40% to about $15 billion on a surge in AI chip demand, handily beating analysts’ forecasts.  TMSC has been building new chip fabrication plants in the US and Japan to hedge against from China-US trade relation risks.

Cyber-security company F5 Inc. as suffered a potentially “catastrophic” breach blamed on state-backed Chinese hackers.  In a regulatory filing, F5 disclosed that hackers have gained “long-term, persistent access” to certain systems which are widely used by Fortune 500 companies and government agencies.  The access could be used to target their clients’ customers.  The company found that the hackers were in their systems for at least 12 months.

Corporate earnings premarket include KEY, MTB, MMC, SNA, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), BK, Charles Schwab (SCHW), Travelers Companies (TRV), and US Bancorp (USB).

Earnings after the bell include American Noble Gas (INFY), CSX, IBKR, and Wipro (WIT).

Due to the government shutdown entering its third week, PPI, Retail Sales, and Unemployment Claims will not be released today.  Economic data to be released include Philly Fed Manufacturing Index @ 8:30am ET, NAHB Housing Market Index @ 10:00am ET, and Crude Oil Inventories @ 12:00pm ET.

Fed speakers include Waller, Miran, and Barr @ 9:00am ET, and Bowman @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility continues to climb and remains high.  The ES 5-day average daily range is now 135.75 points.

Whale bias is leaning bullish on light overnight large trader volume.