08/02/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Aug 022021
 

Amazon’s (AMZN) revenue miss and the GDP rising less than expected pressured stocks on Friday.  Corporate earnings remain in focus and sentiment got a boost as prospects for a $550B infrastructure package is looking more likely to pass through the Senate this week.

Square (SQ) is to acquire Afterpay, an Australia based buy-now, pay-later company.  The deal would be Square’s largest acquisition.  Square says the buy-now, pay-later business is an alternative to consumer credit, and it appeals to younger consumers.  Square shares are down 3.18% after the announcement.

Zoom Video Communications (ZM) reached a preliminary settlement for a $85 million data privacy lawsuit.  The lawsuit was filed in April 2020 and alleged Zoom shared personal data with Facebook (FB), Microsoft’s (MSFT) LinkedIn, and Google (GOOGL).  The lawsuit also alleged Zoom allowed Zoombombing, a way for hackers to interrupt Zoom meetings with pornography, vulgar language, or other content.  The settlement would provide Zoom users with 15% refunds on their subscriptions.

Earnings include NXPI, SPG, RACE, TTWO, and SEDG.

The economic calendar includes Markit Mfg PMI @ 9:45am ET, ISM Mfg Index and Construction Spending @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility remains steady with the ES 5-day average range around 40 points.

No Size bias a Size did not participate in the Globex bullish rally.

 

 Posted by at 6:47 am

07/30/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 302021
 

The Delta coronavirus variant continues to surge and fear it will hinder economic growth the second half of 2021 is creeping into the markets.  The CDC suggested that the Delta variant causes more severe illness than the original coronavirus and spreads as easy as chickenpox.  The CDC will publish data today that supports their guidance change that fully vaccinated people should wear masks indoor.

Texas Republican Dan Crenshaw went on Fox news Thursday and said CDC data is from a non-reviewed study from India.  He told Fox viewers the CDC and FDA have conflicting messages and he trusts the FDA.  Saying mask wearing is a Democrat tactic to scare people, Crenshaw implored Fox viewers to resist wearing masks.

The US GDP grew at an annual rate of 6.5%, well below analyst expectations of 8.4% and a sign the Fed will continue supporting the economy.

Amazon (AMZN) is down over 6% premarket after a rare revenue miss for the first quarter after founder Jeff Bezos stepped down as CEO.  Amazon beat earnings, up 46% over a year ago, but revenue came in at $113.1 billion versus $115.2 billion expected.  Revenue was up 27% year over year.

Robinhood (HOOD) finished its first day of trading down 8% and continues to trade lower premarket.  The company raised about $2.1 billion in it’s IPO, selling 55 million shares @ $38.

Earnings include PG, XOM, CVX, ABBV, CAT and CL.

The economic calendar focus is Core PCE @ 8:00am ET, Chicago PMI @ 9:45am ET, and Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00am ET.  The calendar also includes Employment Cost Index, Personal Income & Outlays @ 8:30am ET.

Volatility remains steady as the S&P 500 continues to work near its all-time highs.

Size bias is short into the US session open on the heaviest Globex volume we’ve seen in a long while.

 

 Posted by at 6:25 am

06/05/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jun 052019
 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced Fed’s James Bullard’s remarks that trade wars with China, Mexico, and the EU put a dark cloud over the US economy.  Powell said yesterday “as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2% objective.”  Fedwatch now places the probability of a interest rate decrease at 53% for July.

Presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders will be crashing Walmart’s annual meeting at the invitation of WalMart workers.  He expected to push Walmart to raise wages higher than the $11/hour minimum wage.

Earnings today include FIVE, AEO, GILL, CPB, CLDR, SFIX, MDB, and UNFI.  The economic calendar is full with focus on the 8:15am EST ADP and 10:00am EST ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.  Also on the calendar are Final Services PMI @ 9:45am EST, Oil @ 10:30am EST and Beige Book @ 2:00pm EST.

Fed speakers include Vice-Chair Clarida @ 9:45am EST and Bowman @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility is up again due to yesterday’s Fed induced rally.  US stocks had their largest move in over 5 months.  Size bias is long into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:08 am

06/04/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jun 042019
 

A Fed rate course reversal???  St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday that a “darkened” global trade narrative could slow the growth of the US economy, followed by a “downward policy rate adjustment may be warranted soon.”  The bulls sent US stocks up into yesterday’s cash close.

Markets will be watching Fed speak closely this morning: John Williams @ 8:30am EST and Chair Jerome Powell @ 9:55am EST.  CME futures predict a 50% chance of a rate cut in July with 2 more before 2020.  That would be quite a reversal in Fed policy…

FAANG companies are in US lawmakers’ crosshairs.  A House Judiciary committee announced a top-to-bottom review of US tech companies and the DOJ and FTC announced they would tackle large monopolistic companies such as Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook.

Dem David Cicilline of RI said “The growth of monopoly power across our economy is one of the most pressing economic and political challenges we face today…  market power in digital markets presents a whole new set of dangers.”

In the same vein, Apple announced they will be killing iTunes and instead split music, podcasts, and TV into separate apps.  Earnings today include CRM, AMBA, GWRE, CBRL, GME, TIF, LE, HQY, and NAV.

The economic calendar is light with Factory Orders and Constructions Spending @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility continues to tick up and if Powell hints at decreasing rates, the ES could move today.  Size bias is a divergent short into Bullard’s 8:30am talk.

 

 

 Posted by at 6:19 am

04/19/2019 Good Friday Holiday

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Apr 192019
 

US stock and futures markets are closed today for Good Friday.  We’ll resume posting on Monday, April 22.  Enjoy the long weekend!

 Posted by at 5:37 am

04/17/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Apr 172019
 

Earnings came in strong yesterday with most beating expectations.  The most notable exception was IBM who beat earnings but missed on revenue.  IBM stock is down over 2.5% premarket.  Netflix also beat but lowered forecasts for new subscribers which sent their stock down around 1%.

Qualcomm (QCOM) stock jumped over 20% yesterday and is up another 5% this morning after they announced a settlement with Apple over technology infringements.  Apple will switch to Qualcomm from Intel for their 5G technology.  A few hours after the announcement, Intel announced they were getting out of the 5G modem business.

Earnings focus today include MS, PEP, AA, ABT, USB, BK, LVS, and TXT.

OPEC is holding their bi-annual meeting today.  Economic data includes Trade @ 8:30am EST, Inventories @ 10:00am EST, Oil @ 10:30am EST, and the Fed’s Beige Book @ 2:00pm EST.  The Fed’s Bullard speaks @ 12:45pm EST.

Volatility continues to contract as the bulls try to push higher.  Volatility is most likely to increase to the downside.  Reaction to earnings will set today’s tone.  Like yesterday, Size bias is a divergent short going into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:48 am

12/04/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 042018
 

Confusion and doubt are creeping into the markets over exactly what was accomplished during Trump and China’s Xi Jinping over Sat dinner’s trade talks.  The WH economic advisor Larry Kudlow tried to detail specifics from the meeting but only conflicted with trade talk information released by the Chinese.  The start date of the 90-day truce is in question as Kudlow says it’s Dec 1 and China said it was Jan 1.  With no agreement written down and signed, markets are a little nervous.  Meanwhile yields between the 3 and 5-year note have inverted for the first time in over 10 years suggesting that the US economy is slowing.  Nothing of significance on today’s US economic calendar.  The Fed’s Williams holds a press conference @ 10:00am EST.  Earnings include TOL, DG, AZO, MRVL, and HPE.  Volatility remains elevated, however could shrink into today’s US close as US stock markets will be closed National Day of Mourning for former US President George H.W. Bush.  Size bias is short on lighter Globex volume into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:51 am