09/20/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 202018
 

Oil prices are up for the 3rd session in a row after the Oil Inventories report yesterday revealed US levels had fallen to their lowest in 3.5 years.  WTI is over $71/barrel.  Amazon announced plans to open as many as 3,000 cashier-less AmazonGo brick and mortar stores by 2021.  Prototype stores in Seattle and Chicago are being tweaked, but Bezos sees enough success to move forward.  Meanwhile, to keep up with the Musks, Bezos said he would invest over $1B Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket program which will fly people into space this year.  On the trade war front, Alibaba CEO Jack Ma retracted his 2017 promise to create 1 million new jobs in the US;  “This promise was on the basis of friendly China-US cooperation and reasonable bilateral trade relations, but the current situation has already destroyed that basis”.  The economic calendar focus is Philly Fed and Claims @ 8:30am EST and Existing Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.  Earnings include MU and DRI.  Volatility continues to contract as the ES remains pinned under its back-adjusted 2922.50 all-time high.  Assume upward movement will be grinding.  No Size bias as Size has taken little interest in trading overnight.

 

 Posted by at 6:29 am

09/19/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 192018
 

China’s retaliation of 5% tariff on $60B of US goods after Trump’s 10% tariff on $200B of Chinese goods was less than expectations and thus became bullish for US stocks.   Is this a sign towards resolution?  Not sure, but the markets seem to be taking it as a sign.  Resolution in the short-term (i.e. before the November US mid-term elections) would most likely be very bullish for US stocks.  The economic calendar focus is Housing Starts @ 10:00am EST and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  ECB’s Draghi has a talk starting @ 9:00am EST although it’s been a long while since his comments have affected the US markets.  Only company of note with earnings is RHT.  Volatility increased yesterday and now the ES is once again pinned under its back-adjusted all-time high.  Expect upside volatility to be muted while the market wait on additional US/China or US/Canada trade war information.  No Size bias as overnight volume was too light.

 

 Posted by at 7:03 am

05/23/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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May 232018
 

US and global stock markets are a little rattled by Trump comments concerning a scheduled June 12 Singapore meeting with North Korea and US trade war progress with China.  The US and South Korea held a joint military exercise last week and now Trump is saying there’s a good chance the North Korean meeting will not take place on June 12, but still a good chance it will at some point in the future.  About the trade negotiations with China, Trump said it’s “a start” but he was “not pleased” with the progress.  US retailers Target and Lowes missed earnings estimates while jeweler Tiffany & Co. crushed their expectations.  The economic calendar focus is Oil @ 10:30am and Fed minutes @ 2:00pm EST.  Before the main events, we have PMI Composite Flash @ 9:45am EST and New Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.  The ES has pulled back enough where upside volatility should not be hindered as we’ve experienced over the last week.  Volatility continues to contract, but there’s more room to expand now.  Size bias is short on increased Globex volume into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:46 am

05/16/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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May 162018
 

North Korea is threatening to pull out of a meeting with Trump scheduled for June 12 in Singapore.  The US is pushing for total denuclearization which North Korea continues to balk at.  North Korea issued the statement “If the US is trying to drive us into a corner to force out unilateral nuclear abandonment, we will no longer be interested in such dialogue and cannot but reconsider our proceeding to the DPRK-US summit.”  The US Supreme Court earlier this week lifted a ban on sports betting in New Jersey.  The decision is causing a lot of activity in the sports business world including potential sports-betting mergers and a $2.2B purchase of the NFL Carolina Panthers by hedge fund billionaire David Pepper.  The dollar continues to inch higher as yesterday’s Retail Sales number were solid and expectations are set the Fed will raise rates sooner rather than later.  The economic calendar focus is Permits and Housing Starts @ 8:30am EST, Industrial Production @ 9:15am EST, and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Earnings today include CSCO, M, JACK, and TWO.  Volatility continues to remain muted with higher probability for a pickup to the downside rather than the upside.  Size bias is leaning long into the 8:30am EST housing numbers.

 

 Posted by at 6:56 am

01/25/2018 Martin Luther King Day

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Jan 152018
 

US Stock markets are closed today for the Martin Luther King Federal holiday.  DTG will resume posting tomorrow.  Do something, enjoy the day away from the markets!

 Posted by at 6:07 am

12/22/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 222017
 

The ES is up slightly overnight as trading volume continues to dry up into the long Christmas weekend and as many traders take the rest of the year off.  Congress narrowly avoided a government shut down by passing yet another temporary spending bill.  Bitcoin’s wild ride continues as the cyprotocurrency has dropped nearly 40% this week, from a high near $20,000 to a low of $12,560.  The new CBOE and CME bitcoin instruments have finally provided traders a way to short…  The economic calendar focus is Durable Goods @ 8:30am EST and New Home Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 am EST.  It’s possible price whippiness could continue today; it’s expected that price movement will start dying down as the day wears on.  Size bias is short into the Durable Goods numbers; however volume was so light overnight that the Size bias should not be given much weight…

 

 Posted by at 6:45 am