03/19/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Mar 192018

A land deal in Japan appears to be threatening PM Shinzo Abe’s leadership and a good chance for a Fed rate hike this week have the stock markets in a bearish mood overnight.  It’s a Fed week and new Fed Chair Powell’s first rate hike decision will be released on Wednesday.  Facebook is down over 3.5% pre-market as US lawmakers begin attacking social media companies for what they are calling “data breaches” of private data.  FB claims the claims are completely false. FB users voluntarily provided their information through an app they specifically downloaded for that purpose.  The data is tied to Trump’s 2016 election campaign.  Nothing of note on the US economic calendar.  Extra attention may be given to Atlanta Fed President Bostic’s 9:40am EST talk at a Miami conference for any insight into Wednesday’s rate decision.  Volatility continues to contract, however expect it to pick back up if the bears start taking control.  No Size bias as overnight trading was mixed, although on last check, Size bias is starting to lean bearish.


 Posted by at 7:41 am

03/16/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Mar 162018

Concerns over a brewing trade war between the US and China have put a damper on the bulls, special counsel Robert Mueller subpoena of Trump’s businesses with potential ties to Russia, and speculation that National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster will soon depart the White House have markets in a defensive mood.  The economic calendar focus is Building Permits @ 8:30am EST, Consumer Sentiment and JOLTS @ 10:00am EST.  Corporate earnings continue to beat estimates, on deck as the season comes to a close are TIF, HIBB, PERY.  Volatility remains elevated, although the ES 5-day ATR has shrunk to 36 from over 100 last month.  From a day-trading perspective, an ATR of 36 is much better than the under 20 we dealt with most of last year.  No size bias this morning as overnight trading was mixed.


 Posted by at 7:06 am

01/25/2018 Martin Luther King Day

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Jan 152018

US Stock markets are closed today for the Martin Luther King Federal holiday.  DTG will resume posting tomorrow.  Do something, enjoy the day away from the markets!

 Posted by at 6:07 am

12/22/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 222017

The ES is up slightly overnight as trading volume continues to dry up into the long Christmas weekend and as many traders take the rest of the year off.  Congress narrowly avoided a government shut down by passing yet another temporary spending bill.  Bitcoin’s wild ride continues as the cyprotocurrency has dropped nearly 40% this week, from a high near $20,000 to a low of $12,560.  The new CBOE and CME bitcoin instruments have finally provided traders a way to short…  The economic calendar focus is Durable Goods @ 8:30am EST and New Home Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 am EST.  It’s possible price whippiness could continue today; it’s expected that price movement will start dying down as the day wears on.  Size bias is short into the Durable Goods numbers; however volume was so light overnight that the Size bias should not be given much weight…


 Posted by at 6:45 am

09/25/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 252017

Overnight ES action was mixed as Chancellor Angela Merkel polled a narrower margin of victory in the German elections and the far-right Social Democrats gained ground putting the German government into limbo until Christmas.  In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called a snap national election to dissolve the country’s parliament later this week as he seeks support for a new government to restart the Japan’s failing economy.  There’s no US economic data scheduled for today, however there’s Fed speakers in Dudley @ 8:30am EST and Evans @ 12:40pm EST.  Also, ECB’s Draghi is testifying starting @ 9:00am EST.  Volatility continues to remain constrained to the upside and if Friday’s lows are cleared, then maybe we’ll see some downside expansion today.  The bulls often take advantage of no data Mondays, but volatility to the upside will most like remain constrained.  Size bias is short into the US session open.


 Posted by at 6:33 am

09/20/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 202017

It’s a Fed day, the day the US stock markets have been waiting for all week.  The Fed is expected to leave rates alone and start the unwinding of their $4.5 trillion balance sheet.  The announcement could send stocks in either direction although the last few Fed announcements have had little impact on the markets as the Fed has been doing a better job of telescoping their policy changes since starting to raise rates.  Trump continues to beat his “America first” drum, this time to the UN General Assembly where he also said the US would destroy North Korea if the US was forced to act.  For today’s economic data, we have Existing Home Sales @ 8:30am EST and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Volatility is getting very tight at 8.5 points ATR over the last 5 days.  Sooner or later we’ll get a range expansion day and a Fed day has a better chance than most.  Size bias is short into the Home Sales report.


 Posted by at 6:33 am