09/13/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 132019

Note: today’s worksheet is based on the ES December 2019 contract.  Volume remains higher on the ES September 2019 contract, but the shift to the December contract should be made sometime this morning.

Trump raised hopes slightly for a partial US/China trade deal in talking with reporters yesterday, “it’s something we would consider, I guess.”  However, Trump qualified that no part of a trade deal is easier than other parts and that he would rather secure a full US/China trade agreement.

The ECB cut rates yesterday an aggressive 0.5% and said they will restart a quantitative easing program.  US stock market index all-time highs are within reach for a test today if the bullish sentiment continues after 7 consecutive bullish days.

Broadcom (AVGO) is down over 1.5% this morning after beating expectations but expressed caution over future earnings.  CEO Hock Tan told investors, “the US/China trade dispute is turning into an extended affair with lots of twists and turns in uncertainty… and we are assuming conditions (are) not going  to change from what we’re seeing now.  And if we make that assumption for next year, you probably see a very uncertain 2020.”

The economic calendar focus is Retail Sales @ 8:30am ET and UoM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00am ET.  Also, on the calendar are Import Prices @ 8:30am ET and Business Inventories @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility is shrinking as the ES tries to move higher.  The ES 5-day ATR has dropped from the 30s down to 24.5.  Sans a change in trader expectations, expect price movement to the upside to be muted.  Size bias is long into the 8:30am ET Retail Trade numbers.


 Posted by at 6:23 am

09/12/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 122019

Today is ES rollover day, the ES December 2019 contract is now the front month.  The ES September 2019 will continue to trade the most volume through sometime tomorrow morning.  A worksheet for each contract is provided today.

After China said they would exempt some US goods from tariffs, Trump tweeted late yesterday that the US would delay tariffs on some China-made goods as a gesture of good will as both sides prepare for the next rounds of trade talks which are pushed to October.

The ECB is expected to announce @ 7:45am ET and explain at a 8:30am ET press conference a major stimulus package with possibly deeper negative interest rates and a restart of quantitative easing.

Privately held Purdue Pharma and maker of OcyContin has reached a tentative settlement with 27 states for $10B to $12B.  The Sackler family will give up control, declare bankruptcy, and turn Purdue Pharma into a for-profit trust.  The proceeds will go to the plaintiffs.  An additional 16 state attorney generals have not agreed to the tentative settlement.

Oracle (ORCL) is up premarket after the database company missed expectations and co-CEO Mark Hurd announced a medical leave of absence.  Executive CEO Larry Ellison will step up to fill the void during Hurd’s absence.  Earnings include AVGO, KR, and DLTH.

The economic calendar focus is the PPI numbers and Unemployment Claims @ 8:30am ET.  Volatility continues to settle in around the 30 point ES 5-day ATR.  The ECB announcement could move the markets this morning.  Size bias is long into the ECB announcement.


ES Sep 2019 contract


ES Dec 2019 contract

 Posted by at 6:49 am

06/05/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jun 052019

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced Fed’s James Bullard’s remarks that trade wars with China, Mexico, and the EU put a dark cloud over the US economy.  Powell said yesterday “as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2% objective.”  Fedwatch now places the probability of a interest rate decrease at 53% for July.

Presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders will be crashing Walmart’s annual meeting at the invitation of WalMart workers.  He expected to push Walmart to raise wages higher than the $11/hour minimum wage.

Earnings today include FIVE, AEO, GILL, CPB, CLDR, SFIX, MDB, and UNFI.  The economic calendar is full with focus on the 8:15am EST ADP and 10:00am EST ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.  Also on the calendar are Final Services PMI @ 9:45am EST, Oil @ 10:30am EST and Beige Book @ 2:00pm EST.

Fed speakers include Vice-Chair Clarida @ 9:45am EST and Bowman @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility is up again due to yesterday’s Fed induced rally.  US stocks had their largest move in over 5 months.  Size bias is long into the US session open.


 Posted by at 6:08 am

06/04/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jun 042019

A Fed rate course reversal???  St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday that a “darkened” global trade narrative could slow the growth of the US economy, followed by a “downward policy rate adjustment may be warranted soon.”  The bulls sent US stocks up into yesterday’s cash close.

Markets will be watching Fed speak closely this morning: John Williams @ 8:30am EST and Chair Jerome Powell @ 9:55am EST.  CME futures predict a 50% chance of a rate cut in July with 2 more before 2020.  That would be quite a reversal in Fed policy…

FAANG companies are in US lawmakers’ crosshairs.  A House Judiciary committee announced a top-to-bottom review of US tech companies and the DOJ and FTC announced they would tackle large monopolistic companies such as Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook.

Dem David Cicilline of RI said “The growth of monopoly power across our economy is one of the most pressing economic and political challenges we face today…  market power in digital markets presents a whole new set of dangers.”

In the same vein, Apple announced they will be killing iTunes and instead split music, podcasts, and TV into separate apps.  Earnings today include CRM, AMBA, GWRE, CBRL, GME, TIF, LE, HQY, and NAV.

The economic calendar is light with Factory Orders and Constructions Spending @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility continues to tick up and if Powell hints at decreasing rates, the ES could move today.  Size bias is a divergent short into Bullard’s 8:30am talk.



 Posted by at 6:19 am

04/19/2019 Good Friday Holiday

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Apr 192019

US stock and futures markets are closed today for Good Friday.  We’ll resume posting on Monday, April 22.  Enjoy the long weekend!

 Posted by at 5:37 am

04/17/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Apr 172019

Earnings came in strong yesterday with most beating expectations.  The most notable exception was IBM who beat earnings but missed on revenue.  IBM stock is down over 2.5% premarket.  Netflix also beat but lowered forecasts for new subscribers which sent their stock down around 1%.

Qualcomm (QCOM) stock jumped over 20% yesterday and is up another 5% this morning after they announced a settlement with Apple over technology infringements.  Apple will switch to Qualcomm from Intel for their 5G technology.  A few hours after the announcement, Intel announced they were getting out of the 5G modem business.

Earnings focus today include MS, PEP, AA, ABT, USB, BK, LVS, and TXT.

OPEC is holding their bi-annual meeting today.  Economic data includes Trade @ 8:30am EST, Inventories @ 10:00am EST, Oil @ 10:30am EST, and the Fed’s Beige Book @ 2:00pm EST.  The Fed’s Bullard speaks @ 12:45pm EST.

Volatility continues to contract as the bulls try to push higher.  Volatility is most likely to increase to the downside.  Reaction to earnings will set today’s tone.  Like yesterday, Size bias is a divergent short going into the US session open.


 Posted by at 6:48 am

12/04/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 042018

Confusion and doubt are creeping into the markets over exactly what was accomplished during Trump and China’s Xi Jinping over Sat dinner’s trade talks.  The WH economic advisor Larry Kudlow tried to detail specifics from the meeting but only conflicted with trade talk information released by the Chinese.  The start date of the 90-day truce is in question as Kudlow says it’s Dec 1 and China said it was Jan 1.  With no agreement written down and signed, markets are a little nervous.  Meanwhile yields between the 3 and 5-year note have inverted for the first time in over 10 years suggesting that the US economy is slowing.  Nothing of significance on today’s US economic calendar.  The Fed’s Williams holds a press conference @ 10:00am EST.  Earnings include TOL, DG, AZO, MRVL, and HPE.  Volatility remains elevated, however could shrink into today’s US close as US stock markets will be closed National Day of Mourning for former US President George H.W. Bush.  Size bias is short on lighter Globex volume into the US session open.


 Posted by at 6:51 am

05/23/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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May 232018

US and global stock markets are a little rattled by Trump comments concerning a scheduled June 12 Singapore meeting with North Korea and US trade war progress with China.  The US and South Korea held a joint military exercise last week and now Trump is saying there’s a good chance the North Korean meeting will not take place on June 12, but still a good chance it will at some point in the future.  About the trade negotiations with China, Trump said it’s “a start” but he was “not pleased” with the progress.  US retailers Target and Lowes missed earnings estimates while jeweler Tiffany & Co. crushed their expectations.  The economic calendar focus is Oil @ 10:30am and Fed minutes @ 2:00pm EST.  Before the main events, we have PMI Composite Flash @ 9:45am EST and New Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.  The ES has pulled back enough where upside volatility should not be hindered as we’ve experienced over the last week.  Volatility continues to contract, but there’s more room to expand now.  Size bias is short on increased Globex volume into the US session open.


 Posted by at 7:46 am