07/16/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 162018
 

Markets are cautious ahead of a meeting in Helsinki between Trump and Russian President Putin.  Trump tweeted this morning that US-Russian relations have never been worse thanks to the biased investigation that Russia meddled in the US 2016 election which produced an indictment against 12 Russians accused of hacking emails on a DNC server.  Apparently, Trump has forgotten about the Cold War nuclear weapons buildup…  Today at 3pm EST starts 36 hours of Amazon Prime day.  Amazon will coordinate sales among all their assets as they continue to try to make Amazon Prime a feature in every home.  BAC and BLK beat earnings estimates this morning.  Deutsche Bank released strong earnings in a surprise release 10 days earlier than scheduled.  NFLX reports after the bell.  The economic calendar focus is Retail Sales and Empire State @ 8:30am EST.  Volatility is shrinking, but the Trump-Putin meeting could produce some market moving news.  No Size bias as overnight Size trading was almost non-existent.

 

 Posted by at 7:17 am

07/13/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 132018
 

Market focus is shifting to 2nd quarter corporate earnings as the big banks Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and PNC report this morning.  Many S&P 500 companies will post earnings next week.  Trump’s European tour will continue to be a wildcard for market sentiment.  Last night he broadsided UK PM Theresa May by telling the British newspaper The Sun that May’s Brexit strategy would probably kill any chance of a trade deal between the UK and the US.  The economic calendar focus is Import & Export prices @ 8:30am EST and Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00am EST.  Reaction to the big bank earnings should set the volatility mood for the day.  The earnings could spark a directional move or be in line with expectations and the ES could hang around 2800 waiting to see if some market moving statement is made by Trump.  Size bias into the US session open is leaning long on light overnight volume.

 

 Posted by at 6:40 am

05/23/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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May 232018
 

US and global stock markets are a little rattled by Trump comments concerning a scheduled June 12 Singapore meeting with North Korea and US trade war progress with China.  The US and South Korea held a joint military exercise last week and now Trump is saying there’s a good chance the North Korean meeting will not take place on June 12, but still a good chance it will at some point in the future.  About the trade negotiations with China, Trump said it’s “a start” but he was “not pleased” with the progress.  US retailers Target and Lowes missed earnings estimates while jeweler Tiffany & Co. crushed their expectations.  The economic calendar focus is Oil @ 10:30am and Fed minutes @ 2:00pm EST.  Before the main events, we have PMI Composite Flash @ 9:45am EST and New Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.  The ES has pulled back enough where upside volatility should not be hindered as we’ve experienced over the last week.  Volatility continues to contract, but there’s more room to expand now.  Size bias is short on increased Globex volume into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:46 am

05/16/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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May 162018
 

North Korea is threatening to pull out of a meeting with Trump scheduled for June 12 in Singapore.  The US is pushing for total denuclearization which North Korea continues to balk at.  North Korea issued the statement “If the US is trying to drive us into a corner to force out unilateral nuclear abandonment, we will no longer be interested in such dialogue and cannot but reconsider our proceeding to the DPRK-US summit.”  The US Supreme Court earlier this week lifted a ban on sports betting in New Jersey.  The decision is causing a lot of activity in the sports business world including potential sports-betting mergers and a $2.2B purchase of the NFL Carolina Panthers by hedge fund billionaire David Pepper.  The dollar continues to inch higher as yesterday’s Retail Sales number were solid and expectations are set the Fed will raise rates sooner rather than later.  The economic calendar focus is Permits and Housing Starts @ 8:30am EST, Industrial Production @ 9:15am EST, and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Earnings today include CSCO, M, JACK, and TWO.  Volatility continues to remain muted with higher probability for a pickup to the downside rather than the upside.  Size bias is leaning long into the 8:30am EST housing numbers.

 

 Posted by at 6:56 am

01/25/2018 Martin Luther King Day

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Jan 152018
 

US Stock markets are closed today for the Martin Luther King Federal holiday.  DTG will resume posting tomorrow.  Do something, enjoy the day away from the markets!

 Posted by at 6:07 am

12/22/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 222017
 

The ES is up slightly overnight as trading volume continues to dry up into the long Christmas weekend and as many traders take the rest of the year off.  Congress narrowly avoided a government shut down by passing yet another temporary spending bill.  Bitcoin’s wild ride continues as the cyprotocurrency has dropped nearly 40% this week, from a high near $20,000 to a low of $12,560.  The new CBOE and CME bitcoin instruments have finally provided traders a way to short…  The economic calendar focus is Durable Goods @ 8:30am EST and New Home Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 am EST.  It’s possible price whippiness could continue today; it’s expected that price movement will start dying down as the day wears on.  Size bias is short into the Durable Goods numbers; however volume was so light overnight that the Size bias should not be given much weight…

 

 Posted by at 6:45 am

09/25/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 252017
 

Overnight ES action was mixed as Chancellor Angela Merkel polled a narrower margin of victory in the German elections and the far-right Social Democrats gained ground putting the German government into limbo until Christmas.  In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called a snap national election to dissolve the country’s parliament later this week as he seeks support for a new government to restart the Japan’s failing economy.  There’s no US economic data scheduled for today, however there’s Fed speakers in Dudley @ 8:30am EST and Evans @ 12:40pm EST.  Also, ECB’s Draghi is testifying starting @ 9:00am EST.  Volatility continues to remain constrained to the upside and if Friday’s lows are cleared, then maybe we’ll see some downside expansion today.  The bulls often take advantage of no data Mondays, but volatility to the upside will most like remain constrained.  Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:33 am