During Trump’s daily coronavirus briefing on Tuesday, he warned that the US may suffer 100K to 240K deaths.  The US death count is currently just above 4K making the projections huge and the end of the virus crisis seem far off.  The US has already surpassed China’s 3.3K death count while Italy is approaching 12.5K and Spain is surging with over 9K deaths.  Global cases are approaching 875K (645K active) and the US 189K (177K active).

Factory data from around the world are showing that the global economy is slumping.  Yesterday closed out the first quarter as the worst since the 2008 financial crisis.  The DOW’s 23% slide was the worst since 1987.

The economic calendar is full, ADP @ 8:15am ET, Final Mfg PMI @ 9:45am ET, ISM PMIs and Construction Spending @ 10:00am ET, and Oil @ 10:30am ET.

Volatility continues to shrink and remain high, but there are a lot of analysts voicing opinions that the US and global market selloffs are not over yet.  Could the ES be looking at breaking 2000 in the near future or is all the negativity a sign that the bottom could be forming?

Size bias is short into the US session open.

A Fed rate course reversal???  St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday that a “darkened” global trade narrative could slow the growth of the US economy, followed by a “downward policy rate adjustment may be warranted soon.”  The bulls sent US stocks up into yesterday’s cash close.

Markets will be watching Fed speak closely this morning: John Williams @ 8:30am EST and Chair Jerome Powell @ 9:55am EST.  CME futures predict a 50% chance of a rate cut in July with 2 more before 2020.  That would be quite a reversal in Fed policy…

FAANG companies are in US lawmakers’ crosshairs.  A House Judiciary committee announced a top-to-bottom review of US tech companies and the DOJ and FTC announced they would tackle large monopolistic companies such as Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook.

Dem David Cicilline of RI said “The growth of monopoly power across our economy is one of the most pressing economic and political challenges we face today…  market power in digital markets presents a whole new set of dangers.”

In the same vein, Apple announced they will be killing iTunes and instead split music, podcasts, and TV into separate apps.  Earnings today include CRM, AMBA, GWRE, CBRL, GME, TIF, LE, HQY, and NAV.

The economic calendar is light with Factory Orders and Constructions Spending @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility continues to tick up and if Powell hints at decreasing rates, the ES could move today.  Size bias is a divergent short into Bullard’s 8:30am talk.

US and global stock markets are a little rattled by Trump comments concerning a scheduled June 12 Singapore meeting with North Korea and US trade war progress with China.  The US and South Korea held a joint military exercise last week and now Trump is saying there’s a good chance the North Korean meeting will not take place on June 12, but still a good chance it will at some point in the future.  About the trade negotiations with China, Trump said it’s “a start” but he was “not pleased” with the progress.  US retailers Target and Lowes missed earnings estimates while jeweler Tiffany & Co. crushed their expectations.  The economic calendar focus is Oil @ 10:30am and Fed minutes @ 2:00pm EST.  Before the main events, we have PMI Composite Flash @ 9:45am EST and New Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.  The ES has pulled back enough where upside volatility should not be hindered as we’ve experienced over the last week.  Volatility continues to contract, but there’s more room to expand now.  Size bias is short on increased Globex volume into the US session open.