The phase one US/China trade agreement is scheduled for a White House signature @ 11:30am ET.  Trump called it a “beautiful monster” of a deal.  In a joint statement yesterday, Mnuchin and Lightizer warned that many current tariffs on Chinese goods would not rollback.  Given China’s slowing economy, there is growing concern that China may not be able to uphold an anticipated $200B of US goods purchases the trade agreement is supposed to entail.

Apple’s (APPL) iPhone security is in the spotlight as Attorney General William Barr once again publicly is pressuring Apple to unlock cell phones for criminal investigations.  Trump chimed in with a tweet “We are helping Apple all of the time on TRADE and so many other issues, and yet they refuse to unlock phones used by killers, drug dealers and other violent criminal elements.  They will have to stop up to the plate and help our great Country, NOW!”.  Apple responded, not true, they have provided substantial assistance to investigating the Pensacola Naval Base shooting.

Earnings include GS, BAC, BLK, PNC, USB, BBT, and AA.

The economic calendar includes PPI and Empire State @ 8:30am ET, Oil @ 10:30am ET and Fed Beige Book @ 2:00pm ET.  Fed speakers include Harker @ 11:00am ET and Kaplan @ 12:00pm ET.

Volatility could pick up later today as analysts finally get to evaluate the phase one US/China trade deal to determine if it meets the expectations anticipated by the stock market bulls over the last 2 years.

No Size bias as they showed little interest during Globex.

A Fed rate course reversal???  St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday that a “darkened” global trade narrative could slow the growth of the US economy, followed by a “downward policy rate adjustment may be warranted soon.”  The bulls sent US stocks up into yesterday’s cash close.

Markets will be watching Fed speak closely this morning: John Williams @ 8:30am EST and Chair Jerome Powell @ 9:55am EST.  CME futures predict a 50% chance of a rate cut in July with 2 more before 2020.  That would be quite a reversal in Fed policy…

FAANG companies are in US lawmakers’ crosshairs.  A House Judiciary committee announced a top-to-bottom review of US tech companies and the DOJ and FTC announced they would tackle large monopolistic companies such as Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook.

Dem David Cicilline of RI said “The growth of monopoly power across our economy is one of the most pressing economic and political challenges we face today…  market power in digital markets presents a whole new set of dangers.”

In the same vein, Apple announced they will be killing iTunes and instead split music, podcasts, and TV into separate apps.  Earnings today include CRM, AMBA, GWRE, CBRL, GME, TIF, LE, HQY, and NAV.

The economic calendar is light with Factory Orders and Constructions Spending @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility continues to tick up and if Powell hints at decreasing rates, the ES could move today.  Size bias is a divergent short into Bullard’s 8:30am talk.

US and global stock markets are a little rattled by Trump comments concerning a scheduled June 12 Singapore meeting with North Korea and US trade war progress with China.  The US and South Korea held a joint military exercise last week and now Trump is saying there’s a good chance the North Korean meeting will not take place on June 12, but still a good chance it will at some point in the future.  About the trade negotiations with China, Trump said it’s “a start” but he was “not pleased” with the progress.  US retailers Target and Lowes missed earnings estimates while jeweler Tiffany & Co. crushed their expectations.  The economic calendar focus is Oil @ 10:30am and Fed minutes @ 2:00pm EST.  Before the main events, we have PMI Composite Flash @ 9:45am EST and New Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.  The ES has pulled back enough where upside volatility should not be hindered as we’ve experienced over the last week.  Volatility continues to contract, but there’s more room to expand now.  Size bias is short on increased Globex volume into the US session open.