10/15/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Oct 152021

Pandemic low jobless claims and strong corporate earnings fueled the S&P 500 to its largest up day in seven months.  The five largest banks reporting so far this week had a collective $30 billion in profit for the third quarter.  Goldman Sacs (GS) reports today.

Bitcoin topped $60,000 after reports said the SEC is ready to approve from ProShares and Invesco Ltd. ETFs linked to CME traded bitcoin futures.  Bitcoin ETFs from VanEck and Valkyrie could be approved and available by the end of October.

Moderna (MRNA) is up premarket after the FDA recommended Moderna booster vaccine shots for seniors and at-risk Americans.  The FDA is considering booster shots for the Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) vaccine.

The economic calendar includes Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing, and Import Prices @ 8:30am ET, followed by UoM Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories @ 10:00am ET.  The NY Fed John Williams speaks @ 12:20pm ET.

The 8:30am ET Retail Sales numbers and corporate earnings which includes TFC, PNC, GS, and SCHW are expected to be the main catalyst for Friday’s markets.

Volatility ticked up on Thursday and remains elevated.

Size bias is a divergent short into the 8:30am ET numbers.


 Posted by at 6:58 am

10/14/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Oct 142021

CPI numbers came in stable, but inflation is at a 13 year high despite a retreat in CPI element prices of clothing, cars, and airline prices.  However, Delta Airlines (DAL) CEO Ed Bastian warned of skyrocketing fuel prices and said that some of those costs were likely to be passed along to consumers.  Some economists think the CPI will rise again as soaring energy costs work through the economy.  Oil and coal prices continue to rise as Europe and China struggle with power shortages.

Last week, the Supreme Court struck down the pandemic era eviction moratorium, so expect rental prices of most vacated rentals to rise significantly and take CPI numbers higher with it.  Bloomberg reported that some rents in New York City have been raised over 50%.

For the short-term, market focus is on corporate earnings.  Earnings for Thursday include UNH, BAC, USB, WBA, WFC, PGR, MS, DPZ, C, and AA.

The economic calendar includes PPI and Claims @ 8:30am ET and Oil @ 11:00am ET.  The Fed’s Bostic speaks @ 10:00am ET and Barkin @ 1:00pm ET.

Volatility continues to tick down but remain elevated.

Size bias is a divergent short into the 8:30am ET numbers.


 Posted by at 7:23 am

06/05/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jun 052019

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced Fed’s James Bullard’s remarks that trade wars with China, Mexico, and the EU put a dark cloud over the US economy.  Powell said yesterday “as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2% objective.”  Fedwatch now places the probability of a interest rate decrease at 53% for July.

Presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders will be crashing Walmart’s annual meeting at the invitation of WalMart workers.  He expected to push Walmart to raise wages higher than the $11/hour minimum wage.

Earnings today include FIVE, AEO, GILL, CPB, CLDR, SFIX, MDB, and UNFI.  The economic calendar is full with focus on the 8:15am EST ADP and 10:00am EST ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.  Also on the calendar are Final Services PMI @ 9:45am EST, Oil @ 10:30am EST and Beige Book @ 2:00pm EST.

Fed speakers include Vice-Chair Clarida @ 9:45am EST and Bowman @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility is up again due to yesterday’s Fed induced rally.  US stocks had their largest move in over 5 months.  Size bias is long into the US session open.


 Posted by at 6:08 am

06/04/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jun 042019

A Fed rate course reversal???  St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday that a “darkened” global trade narrative could slow the growth of the US economy, followed by a “downward policy rate adjustment may be warranted soon.”  The bulls sent US stocks up into yesterday’s cash close.

Markets will be watching Fed speak closely this morning: John Williams @ 8:30am EST and Chair Jerome Powell @ 9:55am EST.  CME futures predict a 50% chance of a rate cut in July with 2 more before 2020.  That would be quite a reversal in Fed policy…

FAANG companies are in US lawmakers’ crosshairs.  A House Judiciary committee announced a top-to-bottom review of US tech companies and the DOJ and FTC announced they would tackle large monopolistic companies such as Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook.

Dem David Cicilline of RI said “The growth of monopoly power across our economy is one of the most pressing economic and political challenges we face today…  market power in digital markets presents a whole new set of dangers.”

In the same vein, Apple announced they will be killing iTunes and instead split music, podcasts, and TV into separate apps.  Earnings today include CRM, AMBA, GWRE, CBRL, GME, TIF, LE, HQY, and NAV.

The economic calendar is light with Factory Orders and Constructions Spending @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility continues to tick up and if Powell hints at decreasing rates, the ES could move today.  Size bias is a divergent short into Bullard’s 8:30am talk.



 Posted by at 6:19 am

04/19/2019 Good Friday Holiday

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Apr 192019

US stock and futures markets are closed today for Good Friday.  We’ll resume posting on Monday, April 22.  Enjoy the long weekend!

 Posted by at 5:37 am

04/17/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Apr 172019

Earnings came in strong yesterday with most beating expectations.  The most notable exception was IBM who beat earnings but missed on revenue.  IBM stock is down over 2.5% premarket.  Netflix also beat but lowered forecasts for new subscribers which sent their stock down around 1%.

Qualcomm (QCOM) stock jumped over 20% yesterday and is up another 5% this morning after they announced a settlement with Apple over technology infringements.  Apple will switch to Qualcomm from Intel for their 5G technology.  A few hours after the announcement, Intel announced they were getting out of the 5G modem business.

Earnings focus today include MS, PEP, AA, ABT, USB, BK, LVS, and TXT.

OPEC is holding their bi-annual meeting today.  Economic data includes Trade @ 8:30am EST, Inventories @ 10:00am EST, Oil @ 10:30am EST, and the Fed’s Beige Book @ 2:00pm EST.  The Fed’s Bullard speaks @ 12:45pm EST.

Volatility continues to contract as the bulls try to push higher.  Volatility is most likely to increase to the downside.  Reaction to earnings will set today’s tone.  Like yesterday, Size bias is a divergent short going into the US session open.


 Posted by at 6:48 am

12/04/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 042018

Confusion and doubt are creeping into the markets over exactly what was accomplished during Trump and China’s Xi Jinping over Sat dinner’s trade talks.  The WH economic advisor Larry Kudlow tried to detail specifics from the meeting but only conflicted with trade talk information released by the Chinese.  The start date of the 90-day truce is in question as Kudlow says it’s Dec 1 and China said it was Jan 1.  With no agreement written down and signed, markets are a little nervous.  Meanwhile yields between the 3 and 5-year note have inverted for the first time in over 10 years suggesting that the US economy is slowing.  Nothing of significance on today’s US economic calendar.  The Fed’s Williams holds a press conference @ 10:00am EST.  Earnings include TOL, DG, AZO, MRVL, and HPE.  Volatility remains elevated, however could shrink into today’s US close as US stock markets will be closed National Day of Mourning for former US President George H.W. Bush.  Size bias is short on lighter Globex volume into the US session open.


 Posted by at 6:51 am