Hopes for short-term progress in US/China trade negotiations is fading after US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said there are no scheduled talks, but Trump would meet Xi Jinping at June’s G-20 meeting.  Meanwhile the Japanese companies Panasonic and Toshiba, plus the UK’s ARM Holdings have joined the blacklisting of China’s Huawei Technologies.  Stock in US tech companies like Apple are declining in what’s being called the Tech Cold War is escalating.

Adding political fuel to the fire, the US sent 2 Navy destroyers into the Taiwan Strait as a commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.  While the US recognizes Taiwan as independent, China considers the island a sacred part of Chinese territory and will make it a part of “one China” by military force if necessary.  The Taiwan President tried to reassure everyone about the US ships that there was no cause for alarm.  A Chinese spokesperson said Taiwan is the most sensitive issue in China-US relations.

Meanwhile Tyson Foods (TSN) is looking to build a beef-processing plant in Kazakhstan to avoid Chinese tariffs.  The initial investment is $200B but it’s expected to be billions as Tyson looks to supply 5 million tons of beef to China a year.

L. Brands (LB) is up over 12% premarket after reporting their Bath & Body Works store sales increased 13%.  Earnings include BBY, BJ, HPE, HPQ, HRL, ADSK, MDT, SPLK, and DECK.  The economic calendar includes Claims @ 8:30am EST, Flash PMIs @ 9:45am EST, and New Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.

After shrinking for the last few days, volatility has ticked up over the US/China escalating tensions.  Size bias is short into the US session open on lighter than recent Globex Size volume.

US stock and futures markets are closed today for Good Friday.  We’ll resume posting on Monday, April 22.  Enjoy the long weekend!

Confusion and doubt are creeping into the markets over exactly what was accomplished during Trump and China’s Xi Jinping over Sat dinner’s trade talks.  The WH economic advisor Larry Kudlow tried to detail specifics from the meeting but only conflicted with trade talk information released by the Chinese.  The start date of the 90-day truce is in question as Kudlow says it’s Dec 1 and China said it was Jan 1.  With no agreement written down and signed, markets are a little nervous.  Meanwhile yields between the 3 and 5-year note have inverted for the first time in over 10 years suggesting that the US economy is slowing.  Nothing of significance on today’s US economic calendar.  The Fed’s Williams holds a press conference @ 10:00am EST.  Earnings include TOL, DG, AZO, MRVL, and HPE.  Volatility remains elevated, however could shrink into today’s US close as US stock markets will be closed National Day of Mourning for former US President George H.W. Bush.  Size bias is short on lighter Globex volume into the US session open.

North Korea is threatening to pull out of a meeting with Trump scheduled for June 12 in Singapore.  The US is pushing for total denuclearization which North Korea continues to balk at.  North Korea issued the statement “If the US is trying to drive us into a corner to force out unilateral nuclear abandonment, we will no longer be interested in such dialogue and cannot but reconsider our proceeding to the DPRK-US summit.”  The US Supreme Court earlier this week lifted a ban on sports betting in New Jersey.  The decision is causing a lot of activity in the sports business world including potential sports-betting mergers and a $2.2B purchase of the NFL Carolina Panthers by hedge fund billionaire David Pepper.  The dollar continues to inch higher as yesterday’s Retail Sales number were solid and expectations are set the Fed will raise rates sooner rather than later.  The economic calendar focus is Permits and Housing Starts @ 8:30am EST, Industrial Production @ 9:15am EST, and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Earnings today include CSCO, M, JACK, and TWO.  Volatility continues to remain muted with higher probability for a pickup to the downside rather than the upside.  Size bias is leaning long into the 8:30am EST housing numbers.