10/19/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Oct 192016
 

Chinese GDP came in line with expectations but industrial production numbers were weak, casting a bearish sentiment on stocks.  The Saudi oil minister stated that Non-OPEC nations are providing strong signals they’ll cooperate with OPEC to stabilize oil prices.  Corporate earnings are very much in focus with HAL, MS, and USB reporting pre-market.  ES Globex action has been mixed, rotating around it’s 2132 settlement price.  US Housing Starts and Building Permits are on deck for 8:30am EST and Crude Oil Inventories back on it’s normal day and time @ 10:30am EST.  Volatility continues to shrink; traders are waiting on a reason to move the markets.  Size bias is short into the 8:30am EST numbers on light volume.

 

dtg-161019-es

 Posted by at 6:53 am

10/18/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Oct 182016
 

UK inflation numbers are up, but no rebound for the GBP despite its tumble over the last few weeks.  Oil is also up on no particular news.  Strength in financial and energy stocks have the ES up overnight while traders switch focus to this morning’s 8:30am EST CPI numbers.  We’re in earnings season and the big name for today is Goldman Sachs who reports pre-market.  Volatility is still a hard read.  Yesterday’s range was a pitiful 13.25 points while overnight the ES is 15.25 points so far.  Until traders find some reason to take the market up or down, the low volatility will most likely continue.  Size bias is long on light volume into the 8:30am EST CPI numbers.

 

dtg-161018-es

 Posted by at 6:32 am

09/15/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 152016
 

We have a plethora of data reports @ 8:30am EST which include Retail Sales number, PPI numbers, the Philly Fed, and Unemployment Claims.  That’s enough new information to either start a market directional trend or if mixed, cause indecision and net out as a neutral.  The numbers will be viewed against the likelihood of the FOMC increasing rates next week or this year or next year.  Volatility remains high and is expected to remain so today.  Size bias is long into the 8:30am EST numbers on light volume.

 

dtg-160915-es

 Posted by at 6:38 am

08/10/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Aug 102016
 

Another directionless overnight session on light news flow.  Oil saw some pressure after API inventory numbers came in higher than expected yesterday.   Focus will be on today’s 10:30am EST Crude Oil Inventories report.  The bulls continue to fight to make new highs and unfortunately, most of this week’s potential market moving numbers are not released until Friday morning.  The bulls are looking and waiting for a reason to run.  Size bias is long on light volume into the US session open.

 

20160810 ES

 Posted by at 6:30 am

08/03/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Aug 032016
 

Globex price action has been lackluster after yesterday’s bearish move.  UK’s Services PMI met expectations but at 47.4, it’s a number not seen for over 3.5 years.  Countering the PMI sentiment is corporate earnings which are generally beating expectations.  Oil remains below $40 and thus the 10:30am EST Crude Oil Inventories report will be watched closely.  Other data on deck include the 8;15am EST ADP Employment Change, 9:45am EST Final Services PMI, and 10:00am EST ISM Non-Mfg PMI.  After yesterday’s range breaking move, it will be interesting to see if the bulls or bears can get anything going today.  A test of the 2141.50 low is expected and if it doesn’t happen early, that’s bullish.  Volatility should be lower than yesterday.  Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

20160803 ES

 Posted by at 6:43 am

07/29/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 292016
 

The BoJ took no new actions to further cut interest rates although at Kuroda’ press conference, he suggested that more action could come but more economic review is needed.  Corporate earnings continue to come in mixed, giving neither the bulls or bears any reason to move the ES outside of its 2-week 50/70s range.  It is natural for markets to consolidate after a big move and the ES moved up around 9% in the first half of July, but it would be nice to get a more price movement again.  Plenty of data this morning including GDP numbers, Chicago PMI, and Consumer Sentiment so maybe, just maybe volatility will increase.  Size bias is short on light volume into the 8:30am GDP numbers.

 

20160729 ES

 Posted by at 6:22 am

07/21/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 212016
 

Back in 2002, Ben Bernanke became “helicopter Ben” after making a reference to Milton Friedman’s concept of money financed tax cuts which he called helicopter drops.   I’ve not seen the term helicopter used for quite a while until last night.  The BoJ ‘s central bank head Kuroda made a statement that there is no need or possibility of helicopter money.  This set a bearish tone for the ES during the European session which appears to be fading as the session wears on.  Volatility continues to remain low as the ES sits perched under it’s all-time high.  Plenty of tier one data pre-market to potentially shake things up: 7:45am EST EUR Min Bid announcement, 8:30 am EST Philly Fed, Claims, and ECB press conference.  Size bias is short on light volume into the morning numbers.

 

20160721 ES

 Posted by at 6:39 am

07/20/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 202016
 

The latest round of corporate earnings is beating expectations and brought out the bulls overnight.  Most notably, the enterprise management software company SAP’s stock is up 4.5%.  The UK’s strong employment report which could temper thoughts of near term monetary policy easing didn’t faze the bulls who are looking to make new highs after 4 days of consolidation.  The only data on deck during the US session is the 10:30am EST Oil Inventory report.  Volatility has been consolidating over the last few days and unless the bulls find some new information to latch on to, I expect moves to new highs to be of the grinding nature.  Size sold into the overnight rally and has a negative bias into the US session open.

 

20160720 ES

 Posted by at 6:24 am