Apr 202010
 

I guess if you hang around the markets long enough you just have a 6th sense about no conviction days. I don’t know if it is fortunate or unfortunate that I was right about today and these levels. I did scalp the first move up to 1.50 and then the first bounce of the VPOC/VWAP at 1200 for a tick each (in purple), but the order flow didn’t warrant anything else. I then got a nice fill at 99 when sellers finally exhausted but it was stalling under 1200 again so I got spooked and bailed at 99.50. Just after my bailout the momentum came back so I bought 1200.25 on a felling and traded into my modified new target of 1201.25 just in the nick of time as it stalled again. We might wait for a fade of 1203 but I doubt it. We will not fade 99/98 again or 1.50 again though. We also might sell 98 or so into 96.50 95.25 if it comes up as well, but again, I doubt it. The market just can’t make up its mind today and volume is too light for our liking. At +1.50 though we are way ahead of our modest goal anyway so we are fine. Remember, we are happy as clams with just 3 points a week. With our risk model that is over 70% in annual returns and enough to keep us in the top 5 on all the lists forever. Be careful today guys…

 Posted by at 10:09 am