Apr 192010
 

I’m sure to many we must look like we had a crystal ball today, but the market structure was in a word, obvious to an experienced trader. As predicted the gap closed on a ripping rally off the open. We were just oversold on nonsense. When there are no institutional short sellers due to ETF and Mutual Fund regulation – along with the mark to market, “free money” long trade as we call it, things like the GS news will result in what appears to be initial catastrophe, but then will snap back hard at least part of the way. From the volume structure on Friday we felt quite confident that the 89 and 93 handles would frame the morning and as you can see we had it dead on. Trades were pretty much direct from my pre-market sheet in the various accounts, almost to the tick although liquidty wasn’t so great for getting size on. Anyway, we bought 86.25 and came out at 88. Then we sold 89 back into 87.50. Then we bought 90 into 92. Then we scalped the top on the way back down selling 92.25 back into 91.00. After there we couldn’t call it. It seems to be selling off pretty hard now, but we won’t look at anything until maybe the 83 handle which as we said may be a good fade opportunity. But again, watch out there as it may actually decide to prop itself up anywhere between 83 and 81 somewhere. Danger Will Robinson. UPDATE: It did just come down to the 83 handle which I scalped for another tick. If it holds a test of 81 I will consider trading back into 84 or so. This is an unheard of day for us to have that many trades. 6.75 points so far.

 Posted by at 11:58 am