May 172010
 

Not much going on today. I was mentioning the other day in a discussion with one of our members that the levels that everyone is looking at and are too obvious are never the best setups. Why? Because you don’t have a chance to still win if you are wrong so to speak. You want the levels to be hotly contested but not so absolute which is why the obvious OH/OL levels with lots of previous activity are never our favorites. On those the market never hangs around and they either just bounce off hard or crash through. That said one could build a whole “do or die” method around those I suppose but I think the probabilities for success are not so high as you have to get the macro stuff to dead on. What we are seeing today is an extension of what I talked about pre-market. Too many conflicts not the least of which is the Euro which is the only reason in my view we haven’t sold off hard. The shorts in the EU had gotten crowded and we are seeing so covering which is propping us up a bit. The VIX is relatively flat now and has erased most of the big pop off the open but at 31 and change I would look for more weakness still. We only had one real set up that we liked today which was a little Mousetrap that ran out of gas around the weak 33 level I mentioned pre-market. Retail did get trapped up there but overall volume wasn’t enough to attract as many suckers as we would like so it started to stall quickly. If you were nimble and caught it you could have gotten 3 ticks out of it which made us happy but even two or one or a breakeven still constitutes a good trade n our eyes. Volume is pretty light so we have officially lost interest. Happy hunting guys and girls…

 Posted by at 10:50 am