Nothing of interest to us today other than tick scalping which continues to be fantastic. Just getting filled whatever we can practically in either direction and winning on the volatility alone. Direction doesn’t matter. But don’t try that unless you know what you are doing. Remember, the way we trade market structure and order flow (scalping aside) is VERY specific. Contrarian in nature and only in rotational markets where we feel we have a really good shot and handicapping the probability of a level holding or failing. As I said in the pre-market I just can’t do that here. Too much conflicting information. We really deserve to be trading down but really not this far down, but in this kind of volatility sentiment no longer leads reasonably. Maybe later when it calms down things will come into clearer view. As you can see what we mentioned about the low volume notches has held true and the probes above and below have essentially negated their validity. If I were position trading on fundamentals I would be doing things much differently and I think there are some great swing and position plays here – especially some great strangle and spread setups. But alas, all of our longer term strategies are 100% systematic and non-predictive and they will take care of themselves as they have for the last 20 years I’m sure. NJ was saying that in some of our accounts trading the general strategy we share on this blog we have had three days with no trade this week. That is no surprise because again, it is a contrarian, rotational strategy that can only really be traded in those markets. We have had the perfect storm of volatile, whippy, trend conditions that make us sit on our hands. But I wouldn’t do anything differently and I don’t feel we are missing. Like I would tell you if I were playing poker – “If I don’t have an edge I don’t bet. I can’t lose what I don’t put in the middle.” Although it kind of sucks because we can’t make any money when it is like this. I have outlined some scalp areas as always in purple for those who are interested…
May 072010

