Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

07/29/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 07/29/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jul 292021
 

US stocks remain bullish after the Fed said the US economy is making progress land tapering is getting closer but also said that tapering will not begin anytime soon.

The popular retail trading application company Robinhood will begin trading on Nasdaq under the symbol HOOD today.  The IPO will be 55 million shares, set at $38 per share, raising $2 billion for the company.  The $38 per share is at the conservative end of their $38 to $42 range the company was seeking.

Facebook (FB) is down premarket after beating expectations but forecasting that ad revenue growth would low significantly over the second half of the year.  Facebook said they factored into their forecast increased regulatory restrictions and upcoming platform changes.

Ford (F) is up 4% premarket after surprise second quarter profits and boosting guidance despite the global chip shortage hurting the entire industry.  Ford thinks volumes will increase 30% in the second half of the year versus the first half.   The company raised their full year EBIT to $9 billion to $10 billion, which is up $3.5 billion.

Earnings include AMZN, MA, CMCSA, MRK, TMUS, PINS, MO, and TWLO.

The economic calendar focus is GDP and Claims @ 8:30am ET.  Also on the calendar is Pending Home Sales @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility remains steady but will likely contract if the bulls continue to take the S&P 500 higher.

Size bias is short into the 8:30am ET GDP numbers.

 

 Posted by at 7:04 am

07/28/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 07/28/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jul 282021
 

Wednesday is a Fed day with a policy announcement @ 2:00pm ET, followed by a press conference starting @ 2:30pm ET.  With the coronavirus delta-variant cases surging in the US among the unvaccinated, it is doubtful the Fed will make policy changes, but markets will be looking for discussions on when the Fed will pull back on support.

Market focus also remains on corporate earnings.

Apple (APPL) is down premarket after a strong quarter which beat expectations but also came with a warning that growth could slow next quarter.  Apple says global chip shortages and supply constraints would affect iPhone and iPad sales.

Microsoft (MSFT) is up slightly premarket after also posting strong earnings beating estimates, but their cloud computing business Azure growth slowed to 45% after currency fluctuations.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up 2% premarket after beating expectations and raising their annual full-year revenue forecast from 50% to 60%.  AMD had growth in computing, graphics, enterprise, embedded, and semi-custom segments.

Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL) is up over 4% premarket after beating estimates and posting an ad revenue jump of 69% to $50.44B for the quarter.  CEO Sundar Pichai said the company is seeing a rising tide of online activity in many parts of the world.

Earnings include FB, PYPL, PFE, SHOP, F, MCD, QCOM, BMY, and BA.

The economic calendar includes Goods Trade and Wholesale Inventories @ 8:30am ET and Oil @ 10:30am ET.

Volatility remains steady.  Markets could drift into Fed wait mode this morning and then be more active after the Fed announcement and during the press conference.

Size bias is bullish into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:14 am