Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

04/22/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Apr 222025
 

President Trump has ramped up his vocal dissatisfaction with Fed Chair Jerome Powell which adds another layer to the tariff induced market uncertainties.  If the president attempts to fire Powell, confidence from foreign investors will be further eroded, bond market risk premiums would rise sharply, and US stock markets will be downward pressured.  Trump posted yesterday, “”… there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.”

China trade increased for the week through April 20.  The country processed 6.3 million containers in 7 days which is a 10% increase over same week last year.  The increase likely reflects manic buying before the bulk of Trump’s tariffs take effect and electronics exemptions (which covers over $100 billion in Chinese goods) stay in effect.

China may also be diverting shipments elsewhere to circumvent US tariffs.  US demand is more resilient than China demand, thus the US and China tariffs will likely increase the China trade deficit as the US slows purchasing of Chinese goods while China stops purchasing US goods.

Tesla (TSLA) reports earnings after the bell.  Tesla has been dealing with slumping sales and waning demand as CEO Elon Musk’s government DOGE role has tainted the brand.  Tesla shares fell 6% on Monday and are down nearly 44% this year.

Corporate earnings premarket include 3M (MMM), DHR, ELV, EFX, General Electric (GE), GPC, Halliburton (HAL), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Lockheed Martin (LMT), MCO, MSCI, NTRS, NOC, NVS, NVR, PNR, DGX, RTX, SYF, Verizon Communications (VZ).

Earnings after the bell include BKR, Capital One Financial (COF), CB, EWBC, EQT, ISRG, PKG, SAP, STLD, and Tesla (TSLA).

The economic calendar includes the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index @ 10:00am ET.  Fed speakers include Governor Philip Jefferson @ 9:00am ET, Philly Fed’s Patrick Harker @ 9:30am ET, and Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari @ 1:40pm ET.

Volatility remains high.  The ES 5-day average daily range is 125.50 points.

No whale bias as overnight large trader volume was too light to be significant.

 

 Posted by at 4:58 am

04/21/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Apr 212025
 

The markets continue to operate under a level of uncertainty around the Trump administration tariff policies.  Strategists are not confident that tariff policies will be resolved over the next few weeks which will set the market direction through the summer.  Different tariff headlines and shifts in narratives have driven huge market swings over the last few weeks.

Markets are waiting for some good tariff news, most negotiation comments so far have been superficial with little actual negotiated substance behind them.  If good tariff news remains elusive, the markets are likely to start increasing recession odds.

Overnight, China blasted the US for weaponizing tariffs to pressure other countries to cut trade with China, calling it “unilateral bullying” disguised as reciprocity.  Beijing accused the White House of pushing a hegemonic agenda and warned that appeasement would only lead to failure.  China says they respect fair negotiations between other countries but would not accept any deal made at their expense.

Big banks and some consumer-facing companies post earnings this week which will provide insights into how corporate America are preparing for the impact of tariffs.  Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) report this week.  Both are down sharply (TSLA -40%, GOOG -20%) this year as investors and funds shift away from tech stocks.

Bitcoin is up over 3%, the Dollar is down, and Gold continues to hit record highs over concerns of President Trump’s push to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the trade war uncertainties.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will meet this week in Washington DC.  The meeting could facilitate a vital forum for dialog among the 20 global finance chiefs about the impacts of the Trump administration tariffs and global central bank responses.  The IMF will put new global growth projections that will include notable markdowns.  An analysis by Bloomberg says that IMF projections tend to skew optimistic and have understated global growth by 0.5% in the 4 large crisis they studied.

Corporate earnings premarket include Equity LifeStyle Properties (ELS) and W.R. Berkley (WRB).

The economic calendar is light with CB Leading Index @ 10:00am ET.  Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks @ 8:30am ET.

Volatility continues to contract but remains high.  The ES 5-day average range has dropped to 130.75 points.

Whale bias is bearish into the US session open on elevated overnight large trader volume.

 

 Posted by at 5:53 am

04/18/2025 Easter Holiday

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Apr 182025
 

US stock markets are closed today for Good Friday.  Normal trading hours will resume on Monday.  Enjoy the long 3-day weekend!

 Posted by at 4:53 am