May 112010

Apparently my pessimism regarding the instability of the long levels though our interim resistance call of 53 was warranted. The market respected each only enough for a scalp before moving on. The good news is I was able to tick scalp the 47/48 and 49/50 handles with ease. Initially I was able to easily scalp 53, but on the subsequent retest the strong institutional selling sparked additional interest so I sold with it for another 5 ticks. On entry my initial target was actually 48.50, but in these volatile non-directionally focused conditions the VWAP tends to get repected more than usual. With that I chose to come out just ahead of it and as it turns out it was the right thing to do as we are now rotating up again after failing to reach that objective. Today was one of those days where our caution ended up really helping us call the action almost to the tick. Be careful if you are trading beyond here. Volume is VERY light in both comparative and absolute terms which will only exaggerate the whip around key levels. It will be interesting to see if we test the highs but we are done for the day.

 Posted by at 10:26 am

  3 Responses to “5/11/2010 Post Trading Analysis”

  1. Hey. So you sold 50.75 – took heat to 52.75 (more than usual?) – and exited at 49.50? Is that correct? Thanks.

    • Hi David, RG is preparing for tonight’s webinar so I thought I would respond. The setup that RG illustrated is one that he’ll discuss this afternoon in the webinar. We call it a “big lots” setup. Recent volatility has increased stop sizes and yes in this example, there was more heat than we would usually endure. The risk reward ratio was a little worse than 1:1 with a 2.5 point stop above the swing high and 2.25 point target. The stall at the VWAP dictated the early exit.

  2. Hey Rob another great seminar. Thanks. i have been using a 1.25 R range chart which gives me an even keel so I can see when the level has more a less better than the P & F way but will reconsider looking at it again .

    Great Trading !

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