May 132010

Finally we return to more obvious structure in terms of trade identification spots – though there are still some wide areas that will not point to a specific entry point. Order flow analysis at each will be key to making the final decision. Volume has tempered quite a bit and we saw little or no program buying or selling into the close yesterday. The VIX did continue to come off pointing to some more short term bullishness in derivatives. Claims were above expected and did cause a bit of negative sentiment to creep in but I doubt with all the positive corporate pull if that will settle in much more. Everyone already knows the jobs suck and we feel that is priced in basically no matter how it may swing a bit more to the negative. All that said though, volume was moderate yesterday and overnight and institutional participation though to the long side has been cautious. Of specially note today is a HUGE line in the sand as we call it right at the OH. The day session R1 is there but more importantly it is the last stop before a huge virtual zero print tail from last week as well as the center of a low volume node in our composite profiles spanning from mid 2007 to present. This will be the hottest contested price we have seen in a long time. Expect HUGE volatility there if tested today around 75. The question is does it hold or fail? Do you wait and breakout the other side and trad into 78-81 somewhere or do you fade it for a quick rotation for a point or two. The latter is the higher probability play in our view simply from a risk perspective and the fact that you could win by not being right as the volatility may create enough noise swing to make that happen. That said, there is more bullishness and I do think it will fail after it gets fought over a bit. So maybe we play the fade tight and trade the break too. We shall see. Don’t fade it too soon except to tick scalp is the best advice I can offer. If it does fail we feel the next interim resistance is probably VERY strong at 87 and that should be a great fade op. On the way up the first rejection at 83 or so is a bit dangerous so we will likely just scalp that one if at all. On the other side we think 58ish should hold as support but the fades on the way down there are trickier still. The reason is the first failure could happen anywhere from 65-67 and then we may see either a quick burst or a grind down to 60-61 which is the next fade spot. We are not sure yet which and if we will fade those. Order flow will really need to show either a trap setting up or a support settling in so we will probably not do much reactionary fading of the short side today.

 Posted by at 9:17 am

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