Jun 082010

Not much to report today other than significant trading overnight which is quite equally distributed across the range. Though there are fewer level fade ops in the current range we should see good rotational activity again today. Also of note is that despite the selling yesterday the overall market volume was moderate with short deltas but institutional orders were net long for the day on heavy relative volume. They bought the 52 handle quite heavily which you will note we have been calling as interim support for several days. The big lot buying overnight has continued as well. On the correlated market front the Euro continues to rotate in its tight range as do treasuries. The carry trade has also tempered and resides in a tight range. Sentiment is certainly long with Uncle Ben telling us the “recovery” is in tact – whatever that means. Regardless, we still see small business confidence rising and Goldman Store Sales came in strong. The 52 handle and to a less extent that 45 handle are going to be critical today. If the bullish sentiment is in fact real, if it is overblown relative to the big picture globally it won’t. Either way it will be significant. We don’t think the probes much under 43 or so means much on a first test. But if we manage to trade rotationally under the 43-45 interim support that will be extremely bearish for the market. That said, we would love to see a test of those lows as we think the full rotation chances are all but assured. We also like the OH for a full short rotation equally well. The OL and YH levels are MUCH more tricky and that is where the most caution will be warranted today. Simply put, if we see momentum back into the 70-71 handle we doubt it holds this time as it has been tested so much.

 Posted by at 9:11 am

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