Jun 152010

With trouble still brewing in Europe and less than critical releases this morning we have a bit of a mixed back. Despite the sell-off yesterday big Spoos traders bought the lows all the way down and yet overnight they have been treating the current POC range as resistance and selling that whole range quite heavily. This is curious as if you recall, 1092 is the ever critical line in the sand we have been calling from the long term composite profiles. Bearish below, bullish above. No doubt we are at the pinnacle in here. The question is whether we can get a pop from frontrun news I think. I will say that if the anticipated positive slant to the releases this week are disappointing, look out below. But it is too tough to call whether we hold this range today or run or fall. I just can’t say. I will say that these mixed emotion days tend to produce nice rotational activity though and that is all I care about. The Euro continues to rally and the carry trade is on in full force as well. Volatility in the bonds has been higher on the back of of the German credit news. I do think the volatility will remain unchanged or close enough and we will just have to see what happens. The 83 level probably has an even money chance of holding as support and if it does it will be very bullish. I do expect at least some rotational activity there. If we do break down interim support is reasonably strong at 79 or so and even if it breaks the line at 68-70 is a rock. There should be some great trades for us if we do trade down there. On the high side I think the OH will fail but I think I the absence of news the YH level has a good chance of holding. Again, it is hard to tell if anyone frontruns news but I doubt any position trader would want to get long ahead of that level until a clear sentiment is established and clearly we just don’t have one right now. That said, there should be some good rotational activity up there today. If we do happen to break it, the cluster between 4-8 is very solid and fading the high side of that cluster should be a dream.

 Posted by at 9:11 am

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