Jun 212010

The price action last week was interesting to say the least. Despite the classic late Thursday early Friday expiration manipulation game the volatility stayed in check and we held a tight range through expiration. The Yuan easing news gave us a shot in the arm but I think the rally is a bit overcooked given China will be slow to react with this move as always. As I write this the currencies are responding and the Spoos is following. The carry trade seems to be holding up though signaling longer term risk appetite continues to be “real”. Fixed income is essentially non-responsive though other than the yields gapping up overnight with the move as expected. I would not be surprised to see at least some retracement although I have to say the institutional order sizes have shown interest at all price points overnight and long deltas are strong. The huge range of light volume extending from the OL all the way to the R3 makes calling any turn virtually impossible though. For my money I think the best bet is to either bet the turn long early or very late and stay away from the middle as the probabilities are lower there. We either retrace and test Friday levels or we hold around the R3 is my sense of it. I’m not sure what we will do as of yet and probably won’t decide until the last minute. I will be watching volatility and the currencies VERY carefully today. Whatever happens it will show in dollar crosses first that is for sure. There is no other news to speak of other than crude continuing to climb which we will watch carefully as well. The bottom line is the low side of the ON range is very tricky and as I said all but the experts would do well to wait for the bottom or stay away from long fades altogether. If we should happen to get a run up above the OH I think it will have to be on new news. If we do and we can get to the 33 handle that is a great short spot for us. I have a feeling that we won’t see any strong trending again today as we settle in after expiration and the news. If that holds true, the mixed bag in the sectors will at least help the rotations around the levels to where to can win even if you are ultimately wrong about short term direction.

 Posted by at 9:10 am

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