Jun 252010

Sorry but some of the levels commuted and I have time to do them once. A timing thing we cannot avoid. I’m sure you can get the idea on some shorts now longs or whatever. GDP was really a good number when you consider the core especially and the knee jerk reaction in my view is just that. But economics are not the star today so it really isn’t going to effect anything. What is the star is the financial reform. I don’t have time to go into a lot of detail here but I will offer this. Obviously we are more interested in protectionism than growth. Make NO mistake, this legislation will limit growth in the very sector that needs it most. So the people in charge who don’t have a clue it looks like will get their wish. Everyone’s money will be supposedly more safe. Oh yeah, but there won’t be any money to protect. Ooops. Morons…There are some loopholes in the hedging arena so technically institutions will be able to put risk on and disguise bets as a hedge which is a good thing. The bottom line is with the 3% shackle hedge funds in terms of total capital are going to take a huge hit. There is no doubt it will effect our business, but of course not our proprietary business as we are neither a bank or a BD. Big traders bought the whole sell-off yesterday on very heavy relative volume but lead the selling overnight on moderate volume. A mixed bad to be sure and the opening swing is any one’s guess – though I think the long term effect here has to be negative until large traders can process the legislation information. The carry trade has flattened out but I think we could see some more risk coming off. Yields got a quick pop but seems to be reversing. Other than that longer term fixed income has little direction. Of course the yields in the 2s got a bigger boost as money shifts longer term on the uncertainty. Institutions may short more 2s and that pressure may help flatten equities out today. We shall see. There are some REALLY wide low volume ranges today. If you want to play the high probability side you will want to try and wait for the outer edges of the ranges to pull the trigger. I fear we may see more toughness in finding good spots today.

 Posted by at 9:15 am

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