If you still think the market doesn’t know all the numbers ahead of time you need to get with the program. The positive claims number was priced in in the early morning of course but the real issue at hand today is the MAJOR resistance from September 2008 overhead maxed at 75.75. There is a hard wall there and we feel there is no chance a long probe will go beyond that level and may even stop at 74. That said, the safest play if order flow is on your side for the long break is to hop out ahead of 74. Of course, the fades at all three levels- 72, 74, 75.75 are even higher probability trades and what we will probably focus on. Volume was very light overnight with an edge to institutional SELLING actually and that has just reversed as of 9AM EST. Regardless of a final tiny probe up we think this market is done. Institutional selling has been steadily increasing and we are likely to drop like a rock soon at least into 54. Fades at 67 & 63.25 may show promise today as well.
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