Apr 122010

As we called pre-market the 91 level was just too vague for any kind of “real” convicted directional trading. I knew there would be volatility there but I just didn’t feel that any long trade for more than a scalp was a really high probability play. It seems I was right at least in the short run. Volume is also VERY light – almost non-existent, so our size becomes limited in these conditions which we don’t like either. I scalped the first poke down under 91 long for a tick, and the failure under the previous rotation up to 94.75 short for another, and finally the failure at 91.50 long again for the last one for a total of three ticks on the day. For those watching order flow you will note that the reason we didn’t take the 3 tick trade from 91 to 91.75 on the pre-market sheet is because on the big push down the high volume never shifted down to the lows, which means weak retail breakout sellers weren’t even dumb enough to try to chase it. So we were in no-mans land and where would you have got in? Significant buyers never came in until 92 or so and by then we were right smack in the center of the pre-market range with nowhere to go but potential rejection overhead at 93. Just a crap, low probability trade from there. And you will note that the market agrees since as of 10:40 AM EST there is still no long side traction. We have meetings and are done for the day but for those hanging on looking for more trades we would be looking at 89.75 still for a fade and if it fails 89 or so short down to 87.25. On the other side you might look for a fade at 95.75. But we are more likely to just base in for a while and chop around. Be careful guys. Scalps spots in purple below…

Check this out: This is my day session footprint showing all the trading today since the cash market open. Line in the sand? All the trading above 92.75 at offer and everything below at bid. Also of note but not shown here is that 100 lot plus traders are favoring the short side. Food for thought…

 Posted by at 10:44 am

  3 Responses to “4/12/2010 Post Trading Analysis”

  1. haha i know one weak retail trader dumb enough to short the lows at 91.25 and then again at 91.50.
    anyhow after getting smacked those 2 times i went into scalp mode 3 times and got some back shorting 93.75 94 and 94.75

    • Hahaha. Sorry man. It was just that there was some strong volume support from Friday afternoon at 90.50 in the mix and then the “real” strong rejection area at 89.75. There just wasn’t any meat on that bone. We did catch our 95.75 fade from the pre-market sheet though it took a while to get there and volume is too light for a big position. But that level held like a rock as we were expecting. You can’t be too dumb or weak if you had sense enough to sell some of those high side rotations. Some good stuff there though I missed them and just caught the 95.75 fade.

      • In reality the second smack I took shorting 91.50 was kinda dumb. Anyhow lesson learned. Nice pick of the 95.75 for whoever lined that up, that was right on the money…. and thanks for showing those purple scalp spots

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