Well we didn’t have to wait long for the first setup which occurred on the 9:34am EST bar. It was a weak long big lots in our 32.75 / 33.75 entry area. The reason I call it “weak” is because the volume is not quite the way we would have liked it. The high volume price for the bar ended up near the top rather than the bottom indicating there were not as many trapped traders on the bar as there would be if most of the volume was towards the bottom of the bar. However, there was certainly more selling than buying going on at the bottom and more buying than selling at the top of the bar. A second reason the setup was “weak” is because the institutional volume delta is barely positive. A little more institutional buying would have made the big lots setup stronger. The entry was pretty quick with some slippage which I indicated on the chart.
The ES didn’t pay any attention to the 37.50 / 38 rejection area as it blew right through on it’s way to above 42. However the market came back down and started respecting the 37.50 / 38 rejection area as support. The volume profile was still intact showing the 37.50 / 38 area as a rejection area. Thus we had a case where an LVN changed from resistance to support. A long big lots setup within the 37.50 / 38 area (which obviously was not on the potential trade list because price started below this LVN area this morning) ended up being good for about 5 ticks.
The 37.50 / 38 area continued to be respected and another big lots with a little prints setup after the next rotation.
The Chicago PMI came in close to expectations. The oil report was mixed with decreasing inventories (2M) but an increase in gasoline demand. The market is now in a range and I wouldn’t look for any new opportunities until it approaches it’s daily high (42.50) or low (33.25).
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