Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

05/03/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 05/03/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
May 032024
 

Markets set aside rate worries for now.  The S&P climbed nearly 0.9% while the Nasdaq was up 1.5%.

After hours, Apple (APPL) surged nearly 6% after the company reported better than expected Q1 earnings and revenue despite a slowing of the Chinese economy and the reemergence of China-based global competitor Huawei.  Apple announced an additional $110 billion share repurchase and increased their dividend by $0.25/share.  Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company is making significant investments in generative AI for upcoming iPhone enhancements but remains tight lipped about details of their AI plans.

Market focus is on this morning’s 8:30am ET April jobs report and the Services PMI @ 10:00am ET.  Does the April jobs report continue to support the strong labor market narrative which implies the Fed will hold rates higher for longer???  A strong report could send stocks down, but likely will provide no new reasons for the Fed to change their course.

Over the last 2 days, commodity prices have been collateral damage from the Fed policy reaction and potential US economy slowing.  Geopolitical pressures have also eased with Israel and Hamas considering a cease fire to old talks with international mediators.  Oil prices are poised for their sharpest weekly decline in 3 months with Brent down around 6.2% and WTI around 5.6%.

Premarket corporate earnings include CBRE, LNG, CRBG, MGA, NVT, PAA, TRP, and HSY.

The economic calendar includes the April Jobs Report @ 8:30am ET, S&P Global Services PMI @ 9:45am ET, and ISM Services PMI @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility shrank on Thursday and reaction to this morning’s economic data will likely set the volatility and direction for the day.

No whale bias as large trader volume overnight was mixed.

 

 Posted by at 6:21 am

05/02/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 05/02/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
May 022024
 

The Fed offered markets some hope by embracing Fed Chair Powell’s signal that additional rate hikes were unlikely despite sticky inflationary pressures.  Treasury yields tumbled over 10 basis points and the S&P 500 made a big post-policy rally.

Then reality set in during Powell’s press conference with the realization that rates will continue to remain higher for longer as the Fed views the current rates as restrictive enough.  Markets quickly erased their post-policy moves.

Tomorrow’s job report carries additional importance as markets search for any new signs that Fed policy is working, and inflation is coming down.

Hong Kong is a beneficiary of the Fed’s policy path which have eroded currency values and equity returns in some countries like Japan and Taiwan.  Global money managers have been rotating portfolio stocks into Hong Kong where their currency is still pegged to the US dollar.  The Hang Seng index has entered a technical bull market.

Apple (AAPL) is the next Magnificent Seven to come into market focus with earnings after the bell today.  The company has struggle lately as Chinese iPhone sales have dwindled.  And now Apple and Alphabet are under scrutiny from the Justice Department who issued an antitrust lawsuit against Google.

In 2022, Alphabet allegedly paid Apple $20 billion to be the Safari browser default search engine.  Closing arguments will be made in the case today and Friday with a decision expected later this year.

Premarket earnings include ALNY, AME, APO, APTV, MT, ARES, BAX, BCE, BDX, OWL, BRKR, CAH, CHT, CHD, CNHI, COP, CMI, CYBR, D, EOG, ES, EXC, GMAB, HWM, HII, ICE, IQV, IRM, ITT, K, KIM, LAMR, LIN, MRNA, MCO, NVO, PH, PWR, REGN, SWK, TRGP, CI, SO, TRI, VMC, WRK, XYL, and ZBH.

Earnings after the bell include LNT, AEE, AMH, AMGN, Apple (APPL), SQ, BKNG, CPT, NET, COIN, ED, CTRA, DVA, DLR, DKNG, WTRG, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, HOLX, ILMN, IR, LYV, MELI, MNST, MSI, PXD, REG, RGA, RKT, RYAN, TXRH, and AES.

The economic calendar includes Unemployment Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, and Trade Balance @ 8:30am ET, and Factory Orders @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility ticked up on Wednesday due to the Fed reaction.  Markets will likely cool down some today.

Whale bias is leaning bullish into the 8:30am ET economic numbers.

 

 Posted by at 5:25 am