May 052010

HUGE volume overnight and very mixed with a line in the sand around the 69 handle. All selling to the south and all buying to the north. No significant economic releases impacting the open, but the Euro continues to be pounded and fear spreads to Spain in debt crisis land. Europe is in trouble. Don’t be too quick to think that since we had a big move down we will return to a more quite rotational pattern just yet. The market structure also offers a few clues to watch out for. We have sold off a bit just as I write this down to the day session S1, but there is one more really key level that may need to be tested before (and if) we can even think about a rotation up for the gap fill. 61.25 is VERY important and is the first key area to the short side. We don’t think that is interim resistance though and if we do take another good leg down the real point of no-return¬†is likely 56.50. With all the positive consumer stuff and US equities earnings, etc. pulling us up despite global debt concerns, we feel 56.50 should hold as interim support and we will look for fade ops between there and 58ish depending on order flow. Be VERY careful fading the OL as there is a good possibility of an extra push down to test the swing low at 61.25. For that reason we will only look to tick scalp any retest of 62.50 off the open and then potentially fade around 61 if that sets up right. If we do rotate up there is a potential scalp fade around 66, but it may not hold as it just developed this morning and is not well established as a pure rejection area quite yet. If we do get above there we think it will likely be a grind all the way to the OH so we see nothing there that interests us. We think the OH area will be volatile when we get there as well and if order flow looks even slightly biased to the offer side we will sit it out and potentially catch what we think will likely be an explosive up move between 76 and 79 or so. We also think there will be good fade ops in that sticky range between 82 and 85.50 but it is too tough to call exactly where it will fail. All about the flow as always.

 Posted by at 9:05 am

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