May 042010

Another tricky structure today without key news until 10 which of course may already be priced in. The big picture is mixed again but I have a sense we need to rotate down for a retest of what we feel is the key point of no return level around the 82 handle. The overnight/morning volume is mixed with the broad market leaning to the short side and institutional traders buying the OL. Despite a significant rally yesterday they volatility has not come off at all and the VIX continues to rise, though not enough to necessarily be a contrarian clue. The market feels like it wants to sell off a bit more but we shall see. Yesterday’s volume into the rally was extremely light in the morning which is never a sign of big traders reloading positions. As I write this I see the OL just broke so from here all eyes will be on the 82/83 handles. I do feel we will hold there for a rotation at least so there should be good long fade ops there. But it is setting up just like yesterday with lots of potential rejection areas so we will be very cautious and watch order flow carefully. We may get the rejection at 84,83, 82, or even as low as 81.75 which if it breaks there we will likely free-fall into the 76/77 handles. If we do rotate up 93 should be a good fade as well as long as there isn’t strong momentum into it and if so, we will look for a potential long above 94 all the way onto 97 or 98. Of course the OH and YH are also good short fade candidates but again, there are low volume print tails on the top of the overnight and yesterday sessions. As with the short side this means the rejection could come at 98.75, 99.75, 1201, or 1202 so if fading up there watching order flow will be paramount to not getting run over. A nice easy filter which may cost you an opportunity, but give you the best chance to win would be to wait to fade the highest rejection price on the high side or the lowest on the low side. But then yesterday it worked out just the opposite and the first tests were the better trades. Like we always say, there are no shortcuts. To win you have to get it right.

 Posted by at 9:15 am

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