Mar 182013
 

trade_130318

Another round of Cyprus bailouts provided some needed volatility to what probably would have been a low volatility day given it was a no report Monday.  Upon first glance, it appeared the ES had moved down huge during Globex, but that really wasn’t the case; the ES was only down 25 points since Friday’s close and recovering nicely into the cash open.  Price worked it’s way up through the DTG 40.50 level without any order flow opportunities.  Once in the DTG 45.25, I got ‘faked’ into a short order flow opportunity near the level bottom.  It was a case of anticipating the bar close (which I do most of the time), but the institutional buyers stepped up after entry and turned the bar into a weak entry not supported by institutional sellers.  Although there were opportunities to scratch the trade, I ended up hoping the sellers would take control which did not happen.  Price broke up hard through the DTG 49 level which should have provided strong resistance on the low side.  However after coiling for 90 minutes, too much energy was stored up and the lower edge of the level was ignored.  After price bounced off the back edge, it rolled over and setup today’s short order flow opportunity.  There’s a lot that happened which is documented in the annotated chart below.

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