May 162013

A lot of economic data releases this morning.  The CPI, Jobless Claims, and Housing Starts all missed expectations which should be bearish.  However the ES remained resilient and would try to work it’s way up to retest it’s all-time highs.  The 10am EDT Philly Fed number also missed expectations, causing an initial sell off, but the bulls slowly returned the ES to near it’s highs.  It became a day of waiting for a good order flow opportunity which never really happened.  By the time the first potential long opportunity slowly unfolded, institutional buyers had already made a major attempt to take prices higher and ES volatility had died.  It just wasn’t a favorable trading environment as I feared price would drift sideways the rest of the day.  What I didn’t realize until after the ES work up (around 3pm EST) was that tomorrow was option expiration and there would be some re-positioning this afternoon.  A short opportunity unfolded but I wasn’t paying attention at the time.  Thus I don’t have an example trade today, but rather I annotated the chart below with my chat comments as the last hour unfolded.

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