Jul 132010

Nice multi-day rally though we are seeing some signs of potential weakening. Institutional participation in the rally yesterday was very weak. In fact, net deltas for the big trader segment were negative on the day with the majority of the selling centered right around the 80 handle which is the top side of our call for interim support today. We do have significant resistance in the low to mid 90s as well as the daily R3s centered there which will very likely be the high side limit if we get there at all. It is also important to note that 1092 is still the major line in the sand for bulls and bears on the composite so keep an eye on that. If that isn’t a good fade spot the way things are lined up today, I don’t know what is. We also had a very bearish International Trade number and store sales for the period were soft. The question is do the institutions continue to price these in or do they hold optimism from the jobs growth and anticipation for another powerful earnings season? We shall see. Treasuries continue to sell on the trade number though gold has continued to see inflows. Currencies have been relatively flat though the Greece situation may provide a shot in the arm for the EUR. Of course amidst all these relative optimistic signs outweighing the pessimistic ones there is something providing a bit of a short term clue and that is a total lack of participation from the carry trade which echos institutional risk appetite in the ES yesterday and overnight with the mix of light volume overnight and weak deltas yesterday. If the cross won’t rally the risk appetite isn’t as strong as it may seem and we are due a correction. So all things considered I would remain cautiously bullish up to the low 90s but be completely pessimistic from there if I didn’t see the cross providing any appetite guidance. All in all there should be some good fade ops today.

 Posted by at 8:59 am

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