Jul 142010

It always feels good when we call the market dead on as we did yesterday. The market respected our major resistance call in the high 90s and institutions called the turn there on an overcooked market. They needed to price in a known disappointment in retail and have done so. Retail is always the follower but of course they have the biggest volume and move the market which they did overnight. Interestingly retail volume is very light again (and was relatively yesterday also) so they didn’t really make as much money as we did as a group. You will note institutional volume was much higher and overnight we have been buying the dips on heavy volume as a follow through. The market is quite healthy and I think we we see the retail number be shaken off and take another run at the highs. Nothing is standing in the way. We have the Greek bond risk easing and fantastic earnings from Intel. If we are not truly strong they are not going to sell chips on this level folks. The Euro is flat and of course as I said yesterday the carry trade called the turn. It is rolling over long again this morning which is a good sign for equities. As expected bonds are bidding on the risk easing which does put a bit pf pressure on money flows into equities but then we have outflows in the WAY overcooked gold market which we also have been calling. Our long platinum /short gold trade has been spot on. Hedged appreciation is always a good thing. If we do need to retrace a bit more to cement the value I would guess that the interim support in the mid 80s will hold and become major support if it does. We are going to have a tough time getting through 1100 as it is a major psychological level and also the mid 90s are still a major line in the sand between bulls and bears on the composite. There is a lot of information there really. Keep an eye on the carry trade and the Euro for direction. The bonds won’t mean much today. As always, try to bet the rotations when sectors are mixed at key levels and watch the premium and volatility for signs of changes.

 Posted by at 8:52 am

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