Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

04/29/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/29/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 292024
 

Tech earnings spurred a market rally last week despite worries the Fed will hold rates higher for longer.  This week includes a Fed policy announcement on Wednesday, April jobs report on Friday, and Amazon (AMZN) earnings (Tuesday after the bell) and Apple (APPL) earnings (Thursday after the bell).

In another busy corporate earnings week, companies reporting include AMD, Coca-Cola (KO), Eli Lilly (LLY), McDonald’s (MCD), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Starbucks (SBUX), and Super Micro Computer (SMCI).

After the core PCE print rose 2.8% last week, markets expect the Fed to hold rates this week.  FedWatch shows a 33% chance of a rate cut in July, down from 83% chance just a month ago.  Friday’s job report is expected to continue the strong labor market story.

Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk made a surprise visit to China over the weekend which cleared two key hurdles for introducing their driver-assistance system in China.  Musk struck a deal with Baidu Inc. for mapping and navigation functions to support full-self driving.  Tesla also passed key data-security and privacy requirements that ease Chinese concerns.

Musk met with Premier Li Qiang, the Shanghai Chinese Communist Party secretary who previously helped Musk setup a Chinese plant which is now Tesla’s top producing plan in the world.

Premarket corporate earnings include BBVA, DPZ, BEN, PHG, ON, and RVTY.  Earnings after the bell include ACGL, EG, FFIV, LSCC, LOGI, MSTR, NXPI, PARAA, SBAC, SUI, WELL, and YUMC.

The economic calendar is bare.

Volatility ticked down on Friday but remains high.

No whale bias as overnight large trader volume was both light and mixed.

 

 Posted by at 6:26 am

04/26/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/26/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 262024
 

Both Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) blew out quarterly earnings, sending a clear message that their investments in AI and cloud computing are paying off.  Alphabet shares soared 17% and Microsoft rose 6.3% in reaction to their respective earnings.  Their earnings announcement also sent AI chip maker and Magnificent 7 component Nvidia (NVIDIA) up more than $10 overnight.

Rising cloud demand is a turn for Google who has long trailed Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft in the cloud computing market.  Google’s cloud unit posted a $900 million profit, well ahead of $672.4 million consensus estimates which shows that corporate clients are spending serious money.  However, Google’s consumer focused Gemini product had been criticized for creating inaccurate images, forcing the company to stop creating images of people.

For Microsoft, generative AI is bringing in additional revenue from their large corporate client base.  Microsoft’s GitHub platform increased to 1.8 million customers, up 600K from last quarter.  GitHub uses AI to predict lines of code, answer questions, and convert code between programming languages.

With nearly 50% of the S&P 500 already reporting Q1 earnings, 80% have beaten analysts’ earnings estimates.  However, the reactions to better-than-expected earnings have been underwhelming while earnings misses are being penalized harder than usual.

The Japanese yen has slumped to record lows against the US dollar.  If the yen continues its fall, the Bank of Japan likely will have to intervene.  The Bank of Japan is trying to move away from negative interest rates.

This morning’s market focus will shift from earnings to the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the PCE Price Index which is released @ 8:30am ET.

Premarket corporate earnings include ABBV, AON, AVTR, BALL, CNC, CHTR, CVX, CL, XOM, HCA, LYB, NWG, PSX, ROP, SAIA, and TROW.

The economic calendar includes PCE and Personal Income & Personal Spending @ 8:30am ET, and UoM Consumer Sentiment & UoM Inflation Expectations @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility took a leap higher on Friday and likely will remain high today.

Whale bias is bullish into the 8:30am ET PCE number.

 

 Posted by at 5:56 am