Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

05/01/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 05/01/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
May 012024
 

It’s a Fed-day with a monetary policy announcement @ 2:00pm ET, followed by a Chair Jerome Powell press conference starting @ 2:30pm ET.  Inflation remains sticky and now wage growth is also sticky.  On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Cost Index showed Q1 compensation costs increased 1.2%, higher than the 1% of Q4 2023 and higher than the 0.9% expected.

Following the print, the 10-year Treasury yield increased 6 basis points, fueling a stock sell-off.  After last week’s higher than expected PCE index, the higher wage costs are an additional data point against the market hopes the Fed will start easing interest rates.

Market focus today is on gleaming any information from the Fed as to when they will start reducing rates from their 23-year highs and when the Fed plans to start slowing their balance sheet shrinking.  The Fed and Powell will likely remain non-committal to rate cuts or changes in monetary policy.  FedWatch shows that markets now only expect one rate cut in 2024.

According to options data compiled by Citigroup, the expectations for a large Fed-day move are the widest since May 2023 when the S&P 500 fell 4.2%.  Citigroup strategists added that options traders have consistently underpriced the magnitude of the S&P 500 Fed reactions.

The US dollar moved 0.5% higher on Tuesday and is near its 5-year highs against a basket of peers.  The euro has dropped to $1.0664.  The stronger dollar is another indication that markets expect the Fed to remain hawkish.

Amazon (AMZN) is up 2% premarket after topping top and bottom-line estimates.  Their Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud computing segment produced strong earnings, up 16% and on track to produce $100 billion annually.

For the quarter, Amazon net sales rose 13% to $143.3 billion, well above expectations of $142.6 billion.  CFO Brian Olsavsky said capital investment in infrastructure costs to support AI features are expected to be “meaningfully” higher than the $50 billion spent in 2023.

Premarket corporate earnings include AER, ARCC, ADP, GOLD, BIP, CDW, COR, CVE, CGI, CLH, CVS, DD, ENTG, FLEX, FTS, GRMN, GPN, GSK, IDXX, JCI, KKR, MAR, MA, NBIX, PFE, PPL, CD, EL, KHC, UTHR, VRSK, WEC, WLK, WING, and YUM.

Earnings after the bell include AFL, ALB, AFG, AIG, AWK, ANSS, CVNA, CF, CTSH, CTVA, DVN, DASH, EBAY, FSLR, FNV, GFL, HST, MRO, MKL, MET, MGM, MAA, MPWR, PAYC, PTC, QRVO, QCOM, SRPT, SCI, TTEK, ALL, MOS, VTR, and VICI.

In addition to this afternoon’s Fed announcement and press conference, the economic calendar is full and includes ADP @ 8:15am ET, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI @ 9:45am ET, ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices, JOLTS, and Construction Spending @ 10:00am ET, and Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30am ET.

Volatility increased from Tuesday’s pre-Fed selloff.  The afternoon Fed activities bring potential for additional volatility today.

Whale bias is bearish into the 8:15am ET ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.

 

 Posted by at 5:10 am

04/30/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/30/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 302024
 

Despite corporate earnings continuing to beat expectations, rising Treasury yields continue to weigh on market sentiment.  The 10-year is up over 40 basis points in April to 4.63%, the highest level since November 2023 when the S&P 500 fell 3%.  The 2-year is sitting at 4.98%, just below the 5% key level where stocks sold off in 2023.

Fed Chair Powell is expected to deliver a message that rates need to remain at 23-year highs to bring down inflation, but if market participants interpret tomorrow’s Fed policy announcement as rates cuts being pushed out even further, another S&P 500 selloff could ensue.

Corporate earnings highlights for today include McDonald’s (MCD) premarket and AMD, Amazon (AMZN), and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) after the bell.

Samsung Electronics Co. beat earnings estimates as their semiconductor division returned to profitability on a spending surge for AI-related memory chips from US-based cloud hyper-scalers like Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL).  Samsung’s quarterly net income was $4.8 billion, 4x their net income in the same quarter last year.

Tesla (TSLA) shares soared 15% on Monday after the Full Self Driving technology news in China.  Over the last 5 days, Elon Musk’s net worth soared $37.3 billion.  The amount is nearly Musk’s $44 billion Twitter purchase, the largest buyout deal in history.

In other Tesla news, Musk dismissed 2 Tesla senior executives, the heads of the Supercharger business and the new vehicles program, effective this morning.  Musk plans to dismiss everyone who worked under the 2 executives, about 500 employees.  Tesla’s public policy team led by former executive Rohan Patel will also be dissolved.

Premarket earnings include MMM, APD, AEP, AMT, ADM, BSBR, SAN, CCJ, CNP, Coca-Cola (KO), GLW, ETN, ECL, LLY, EPD, IT, GEHC, HSBC, HUBB, ITW, INCY, LDOS, MPC MLM, McDonald’s (MCD), TAP, MPLX, PYPL, PAG, PEG, QSR, SIRI, STLA, SYY, TT, and ZBRA.

Earnings after the bell include AMD, Amazon (AMZN), AMCR, ACGL, CHK, FANG, EIX, EQH, ESS, EXR, IBM, INVH, LPLA, MDLZ, OKE, PINS, PRU, PSA, RNR, RSG, SWKS, SBUX, SYK, Super Micro Computer (SMCI), CLX, UDR, and WPC.

The economic calendar includes the Employment Cost Index @ 8:30am ET, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI and HPI @ 9:00am ET, Chicago PMI @ 9:45am ET, and CB Consumer Confidence @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility dropped on Monday but could be muted today as markets wait on tomorrow’s Fed rate decision.

No whale bias as large traders showed little interest overnight.

 

 Posted by at 5:06 am