Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

05/02/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 05/02/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
May 022024
 

The Fed offered markets some hope by embracing Fed Chair Powell’s signal that additional rate hikes were unlikely despite sticky inflationary pressures.  Treasury yields tumbled over 10 basis points and the S&P 500 made a big post-policy rally.

Then reality set in during Powell’s press conference with the realization that rates will continue to remain higher for longer as the Fed views the current rates as restrictive enough.  Markets quickly erased their post-policy moves.

Tomorrow’s job report carries additional importance as markets search for any new signs that Fed policy is working, and inflation is coming down.

Hong Kong is a beneficiary of the Fed’s policy path which have eroded currency values and equity returns in some countries like Japan and Taiwan.  Global money managers have been rotating portfolio stocks into Hong Kong where their currency is still pegged to the US dollar.  The Hang Seng index has entered a technical bull market.

Apple (AAPL) is the next Magnificent Seven to come into market focus with earnings after the bell today.  The company has struggle lately as Chinese iPhone sales have dwindled.  And now Apple and Alphabet are under scrutiny from the Justice Department who issued an antitrust lawsuit against Google.

In 2022, Alphabet allegedly paid Apple $20 billion to be the Safari browser default search engine.  Closing arguments will be made in the case today and Friday with a decision expected later this year.

Premarket earnings include ALNY, AME, APO, APTV, MT, ARES, BAX, BCE, BDX, OWL, BRKR, CAH, CHT, CHD, CNHI, COP, CMI, CYBR, D, EOG, ES, EXC, GMAB, HWM, HII, ICE, IQV, IRM, ITT, K, KIM, LAMR, LIN, MRNA, MCO, NVO, PH, PWR, REGN, SWK, TRGP, CI, SO, TRI, VMC, WRK, XYL, and ZBH.

Earnings after the bell include LNT, AEE, AMH, AMGN, Apple (APPL), SQ, BKNG, CPT, NET, COIN, ED, CTRA, DVA, DLR, DKNG, WTRG, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, HOLX, ILMN, IR, LYV, MELI, MNST, MSI, PXD, REG, RGA, RKT, RYAN, TXRH, and AES.

The economic calendar includes Unemployment Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, and Trade Balance @ 8:30am ET, and Factory Orders @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility ticked up on Wednesday due to the Fed reaction.  Markets will likely cool down some today.

Whale bias is leaning bullish into the 8:30am ET economic numbers.

 

 Posted by at 5:25 am

05/01/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 05/01/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
May 012024
 

It’s a Fed-day with a monetary policy announcement @ 2:00pm ET, followed by a Chair Jerome Powell press conference starting @ 2:30pm ET.  Inflation remains sticky and now wage growth is also sticky.  On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Cost Index showed Q1 compensation costs increased 1.2%, higher than the 1% of Q4 2023 and higher than the 0.9% expected.

Following the print, the 10-year Treasury yield increased 6 basis points, fueling a stock sell-off.  After last week’s higher than expected PCE index, the higher wage costs are an additional data point against the market hopes the Fed will start easing interest rates.

Market focus today is on gleaming any information from the Fed as to when they will start reducing rates from their 23-year highs and when the Fed plans to start slowing their balance sheet shrinking.  The Fed and Powell will likely remain non-committal to rate cuts or changes in monetary policy.  FedWatch shows that markets now only expect one rate cut in 2024.

According to options data compiled by Citigroup, the expectations for a large Fed-day move are the widest since May 2023 when the S&P 500 fell 4.2%.  Citigroup strategists added that options traders have consistently underpriced the magnitude of the S&P 500 Fed reactions.

The US dollar moved 0.5% higher on Tuesday and is near its 5-year highs against a basket of peers.  The euro has dropped to $1.0664.  The stronger dollar is another indication that markets expect the Fed to remain hawkish.

Amazon (AMZN) is up 2% premarket after topping top and bottom-line estimates.  Their Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud computing segment produced strong earnings, up 16% and on track to produce $100 billion annually.

For the quarter, Amazon net sales rose 13% to $143.3 billion, well above expectations of $142.6 billion.  CFO Brian Olsavsky said capital investment in infrastructure costs to support AI features are expected to be “meaningfully” higher than the $50 billion spent in 2023.

Premarket corporate earnings include AER, ARCC, ADP, GOLD, BIP, CDW, COR, CVE, CGI, CLH, CVS, DD, ENTG, FLEX, FTS, GRMN, GPN, GSK, IDXX, JCI, KKR, MAR, MA, NBIX, PFE, PPL, CD, EL, KHC, UTHR, VRSK, WEC, WLK, WING, and YUM.

Earnings after the bell include AFL, ALB, AFG, AIG, AWK, ANSS, CVNA, CF, CTSH, CTVA, DVN, DASH, EBAY, FSLR, FNV, GFL, HST, MRO, MKL, MET, MGM, MAA, MPWR, PAYC, PTC, QRVO, QCOM, SRPT, SCI, TTEK, ALL, MOS, VTR, and VICI.

In addition to this afternoon’s Fed announcement and press conference, the economic calendar is full and includes ADP @ 8:15am ET, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI @ 9:45am ET, ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices, JOLTS, and Construction Spending @ 10:00am ET, and Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30am ET.

Volatility increased from Tuesday’s pre-Fed selloff.  The afternoon Fed activities bring potential for additional volatility today.

Whale bias is bearish into the 8:15am ET ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.

 

 Posted by at 5:10 am