Big news day today with claims and then ISM and Construction Spending at 10. It won’t take much to break the camel’s back. MASSIVE volume deltas again from big traders to the short side all night and throughout the pre-market morning with the broad market opposite and very slightly long. European equities are pulling us up a bit also but he Euro is flat. When messages are mixed you have to go with your instinct. Claims slightly lower than last and a high lower than the high end of consensus. Basically zero volatility on the news. Also of note is a HUGE volume divergence during yesterday’s day session. Overall volume fell through the whole rally and ripped up in the sell-off. The OH broke pre-market so now 73.75 is key. Be careful here though as it butts up against a strong cluster between 74-76 where we may base in and rotate for a while. As always we will watch the order flow to filter. On the other side we would consider selling under 68.50 into the OL at 65.75 where we expect strong rejection as it is also right at a key HV cluster so there may be a fade there as well. We would not sell 70ish though as there may be interim support around the 69 handle. If we breakdown hard we would look at selling 64 into 61.25 as well. A BIG item to keep in mind if the news at 10 or some other item should cause an upside move: Just above the interim high at 76.50 is a HUGE area of low volume from September 2008 where you should expect MASSIVE initial rejection and if it does get past there expect a fast market up into the 80’s. Holiday volume may be light.
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