Mar 102010

Yesterday’s rally was absurd considering there was no institutional volume in it to speak of, but profitable nonetheless with a fade of the top back into the 40 handle as expected. It continues to base in balance at this area pre-market. A mixed bag in terms of sentiment leaning slightly to the short side overall, but there may be one last test of yesterday’s high. We are ready for either. In these conditions it is highest probability and lowest risk to simply scalp the edges and wait to get in breakouts for a bit to avoid head fakes. So fading 42ish short and 38ish long must be done with caution. A long trade which waits until 43 or so and trades into the retest of 45 is a good bet as well as a short at 37 or so into a test of the low. In both cases there is no benefit other than increased volatility risk of getting in early. If it does trade up and fail at 45 which would be the highest probability given the position trader volume picture, a fade there is another good bet back into 41 or on to 40 again. We just have to see how it shakes out off the open.

 Posted by at 9:23 am

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