Today started out slow and for a while my first trades from the DTG 41 level looked good. The 10am EST Philly Fed news turned out to be a big miss and price started to fall but acted very resilient in the DTG 41 level. The instituional buying lured me into a long trades which I was able to capture small targets in front of the VWAP, but my large targets were stopped after the ES had consolidated for almost an hour then started to break down. The hour long consolidation threw me off in recognizing the ensuing trend. After the news, I had anticipated a much bigger selloff would occur but when it didn’t happen and I saw all the selling being absorbed my opinion had changed. The markets have been interpreting bad economic news as good news lately in anticipation of Fed stimulus, so I convinced myself that the logic must still be prevailing.
The ES dtropped into my favorite level for the day; where I had framed the day’s low, the DTG 36.50 level. After a bounce off 36.50, I could see the institutional buyers were supporting the level vigorously so I jumped on board long before waiting on a 2nd push retest of the day’s low. The sad thing is that I had posted to chat that I expect the LOD to be tested again. My impatience turned out to be a mistake.
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