Apr 222010

VERY tricky market structure this morning. PPI less energy & food was flatlined and as expected claims fell a hair to the middle of the consensus range. The market didn’t react at all really. Sentiment is mixed with continued signs of consumer recovery, yet debt market concerns are afoot. Credit Suisse puts in a big miss and there is more trouble in Greece as well. Volume is extremely heavy in the overnight and morning sessions with a slight edge to the short side. The daily time frame also continues to lean to the short side on significant volume and institutions continue to lead the selling. Still, it is hard to guess which way we break. You will notice in conditions like this my fades at the edges tend to drop to ticks as volatility at highs and lows can be insane. The structure is tricky as I said. On the high side there are lots of little volume notches on the way up that are potential fades but we will just have to read the order flow and feel it out today. Nothing cut and dried. 95.75, 98.25, 1202, & 1204 are all candidates. Meanwhile there are great long breakout candidates north of 96.25 if the 95.75 fade doesn’t hold and north of 99.00 if the 98.25 fade doesn’t hold for a point or two each. The low side is even trickier as the good fade could be anywhere between 94 and 92. We will play the trap trade only down there. If retail chases the short and stall on heavy volume that will be our spot, otherwise I’m sure I will find tick scalps in there. BE CAREFUL at 94/93/92 trading long. Seriously. You can get crushed there. If it does break down there is nothing that interests me on the short side in that direction until 90.75 or so where I might sell into 89 which I think is interim support or if it is really in a freefall I might continue short into 87.50 or even 84.00. Again, watch out if the opening swing is between 94 and 92-ish. Also watch for housing news at 10.

 Posted by at 9:06 am

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