Apr 212010

Sort of an interesting picture today. As of 8:45 we have a mixed bag on the volume with institutions slightly long and the broad market slightly short on heavy volume. They are fighting it out for sure but there is a little head fake going on to watch out for. There was a big responsive sell off in the S&P this morning in response to the Euro sell-off, but the Q’s, the Dow, and the 2000 didn’t follow, so we have to discount most of the broad market short volume which is very neatly clustered under the 6 handle or so. Once we do that we see even more optimism. Earnings and economic numbers continue to be strong with UK unemployment putting in fantastic shrinking numbers unexpectedly. For these reasons we think the short side holds today and we will fade another move to the OL at 1.75/1.0-ish. We have no break trades short as even if we get that far, there just isn’t enough meat on those bones. Here is why: If you get past the OL you are running into a potential grind cluster between 1201 and 1199, which is a big potential rejection area that spans all the way down to 97 which is right on top of another grind. If it sells off we will pass, other than the fades at those levels. We won’t fade another test of the 4.50 handle from underneath as it may break next time. We will watch order flow around YH/YC at 5.75/6-ish for potential rejection but BE CAREFUL there guys – maybe just a scalp. If we do break through we LOVE the long north of 6.25 into the OH retest. As far as fading 9.25 that is another danger zone as it is so close to the interim high at 10.50 it may just run you over if sentiment is strong in the cash. I will most likely just scalp at 9.25 if at all and then look for a good fade at 10.50. The day session R2 is also right at that level to the tick which should help it reject even cleaner.

 Posted by at 9:01 am

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