Apr 282010

Very interesting & dangerous market today. TONS of opportunities and it is hard to say if some may be taken out pre-market, so keep that in mind if you see something already happened when you read this. Yesterday’s short volume was big, but even more interesting is the rollover this morning. GS is leading with modest gains in the pre-market along with big tech who is always leading and institutional order flow in the ES nicely favored to the long side on VERY heavy volume. You don’t see this kind of volume with just short covering. The big question today is the Fed language and if it will change pointing to a rate change at the meeting. The market always seems to know either by telepathy or cheating so I can’t help but wonder if we will ultimately revert to the one way trade and rip up yesterday’s losses. All this said there are some pressures at key levels from recent auctions creating some issues this morning. We called yesterday’s interim support between 89-92 which did build for a bit before the final break down just under 80. We feel that is less significant and the 89-92 area is still going to end up being support – depending on the Fed. All the overnight/morning buying has been north of 86 for the most part so that will be a key level to be aware of. If we can get traction above 92 and base in, a break above 95 should produce a RIPPING fast market at least up to the ever important psychological 1200 handle. As I write this the 87.75 and 89 scalps have been hit so watch for the 91.25 and 94.75 rejections next but be prepared to just scalp, watch order flow and get out of the way if they are stacking up. 94.74 is REALLY key and expect GIANT volatility there. There aren’t many short break opportunities as the market structure isn’t well suited to it. We would sell a move under 82 though into 80 or 78. 83.75 and 80.50 may be good fades as well but order flow is key so be prepared to scalp. We think the YL and OL are rocks so if we do get a non-news induced test, we would be looking to fade those to the long side. Should be interesting, but quite dangerous today.

 Posted by at 9:15 am

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