Mar 122010

As expected we gapped up overnight ahead of the great retail number. Now how do they know before the number comes out? Hahaha. What a joke. The key thing to keep in mind today is just north of 56 is no-mans land because it is where the huge free-fall selling tail in October 08′ had virtually NO traded volume. What that means is the market has no basis of understanding itself and rips through those areas to a known comfort zone. That is why there was no volume in the news spike EXACTLY just above that level. We don’t care which way we go as there are plenty of trades either way. A break back into that morning news tail is great above 57.50 and into the re-test of 59.50 or maybe beyond if PA holds. Of course depending on order flow there may be a great fade there as well back into the 56/55 handles. A fade of 54.50 back to 55/56 area is great too if it doesn’t happen pre-market. The gap fill trade of selling 54ish back into the re-test of yesterday’s high/close at 51 is a no-brainer if it sets up as well. Fading that area is a little tricky though as just under it there is a key volume support area which the market may choose to really slosh around in for a while. We would limit the 51 fade to a scalp of a tick or two and only if it sets up right.

 Posted by at 9:41 am

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