Apr 082010

We had been saying for several days that institutional positioning to the short side had been steadily increasing and we finally got the flush yesterday. Uncle Ben stirred things up a bit as always but what we saw was really just a technical move in our view. No significant earnings on the docket today and GM while posting a 4.4B loss is optimistic for a year end profit. Claims saw very little volume this morning as well. That number is worthless these days anyway. The big picture overnight shows all the volume trading under 75 and the majority to the short side with institutions leading the selling. Euro markets are in lockstep and the 10s had a nice pop overnight as well. We think there are a lot of position trader late rally buyer stops just under the 70 handle so we may get a another little flush down there, but not much more. There is a HUGE line of volume support from 70ish down to 66ish and we expect the market to grind away through there. We don’t want to be holding anything short past 70.50. Be VERY CAREFUL fading the OL as it has been hit 4 times so far and may not hold. If it breaks we may sell into that key 70.50 level. On the long side, the gap fill trade may set up, but we would wait to get long above 75.50 and only trade into 76.50 or 77.75 at the most. 77.75 is the key overhead resistance and VERY strong through several days. That should be a nice fade short back into 76.60. If not, 79.00/25 is the one.

 Posted by at 8:48 am

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