Apr 092010

All quiet this morning as we base in just under the interim highs. Institutions VERY long favored on good volume overnight. Yesterday’s rally was a bit surprising in terms of magnitude but not in the grand scheme. The real long pressure is actually coming from the whole world being long 2s short 10s. The “free money trade” – at least until the fed makes its move. We needed the technical flush and got it, but snapped back as there is still no reason for global risk appetite to change. Again, we are in a big tail of unknown value from September 08 and the market quite naturally wants to get out of here and find some prices it understands. This means we need to see 89.75-94 soon and as we have seen we don’t really need much news to move us in these conditions. For all these reasons I think the short side is stronger so we will feel pretty good about fading 84.75 or the OL if we get there. Be careful on the 84.75 fade. There may be downward pressure for the gap fill. Watch order flow carefully there. The OL should be a little more solid as it is both a rejection and acceptance area. We wouldn’t mind selling the other side of the 84.75 notch into the OL either. On the other side, I will watch the flow carefully and probably just scalp the OH and the 88 area due to long sentiment. Still, the prices overhead are so unknown I hate the idea of trading long above 88. I would rather fade 89.75 or whatever else up there if & when it fails.

 Posted by at 9:17 am

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