Apr 122010

We got a little extra pop overnight led by the Euro on the Greece news but it came off quite quickly. Note that it stopped just shy of our last level we have been reporting inside 1200 of 98.75. We think the most important item this morning is are the continued signals that the rally is more than a little overcooked as evidenced by the volume picture. The last three days of last week volume has been shrinking to the long side with institutional order sizes leading the pack. That said, the market still wants to go up so we need to see if 1200 is yet in the cards. Either way, the whole area last seen in 9/08 is basically one big range between 1190-1200 and as such we may need to revisit that now that the big selling tail from back then has had all the prices covered once. We may just base in for a while in that range. The OL at 91 is also a little balance area of volume from late Friday so we don’t mind scalping it long but doubt we will commit to a long trade there. The more important test is 89.75. As long as order flow confirms we think that may be the better fade. If it shows signs of breaking we would sell under 89.50 into 87.75 which is a VERY strong interim support and all the stops for the late chasers are under there. We wouldn’t stay short under it as it is a giant block of volume all the way down to 83 which is the point of no return for us now. When we do get there action will be high. On the other side we would fade 95.75 as we feel the market will struggle to pass. We don’t like fading the OH at 98.50 as it is just too close to 1200 and we could stretch out long at any time there and get run over. We would rather wait and fade 1200 when it happens. UPDATE 9:08 AM EST: Notice 91 has been hit a bunch of times. I wouldn’t fade that level now if you put a gun to my head. That is a sucker trade that is likely to get run over. If I am wrong fine. I can’t lose what I don’t put in the middle. But 89.75 is the cleaner spot for a scalp. I always try to fade virgin levels – virgin on the session that is. Deltas as shiftig more and more negative especially with big traders. I am starting to feel a little stronger about 91 not holding, but I will still look to at least scalp 89.75 and/or potentially sell 89ish into 87 if sell side pressure is strong.

 Posted by at 8:52 am

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